You're getting downvoted, but it's true. If I recall, the city/state would've broken even not that far into the future, and then everything after that would've been pure profit for them.
The alternative, as is being demonstrated, is that you simply don’t get that business, and you lose out. x% of $0 is $0.
No. Not "new business". "A" new business. It's a sweetheart deal for one company in particular subsidized by the taxpayers. They're not reducing their citywide tax rate to attract Amazon, they're just giving a handout directly to Amazon.
What you're describing is nothing close to the reality. It's the prisoner's dilemma. Cities that participate in this scheme take turns screwing each other over in an attempt to get a minor benefit themselves, but compared to the scenario where nobody played the game to begin with, they all lose.
1. $2.988 billion in state/city subsidies (so ~$48,000 per job)
2. The state estimated that Amazon will generate $27.5 billion in state and city revenue over 25 years, a 9:1 ratio of revenue to subsidies.
Using the numbers above, we can calculate that the state would break even in roughly 3 years if they're correct.
[0]https://ny.curbed.com/2018/11/16/18098589/amazon-hq2-nyc-que...