Your recollection is correct. Consider too the dust accumulation predictions for the moon landing. It would appear that we (as humans) are not very good at dust estimates (dustimates?). This is reinforced by the continuing struggle/inability to manufacture dirt. As an avid composter with a ton (lol sorry) of experience, I can make you hummus for days. I can turn 90% of your organic household waste into growth medium, bokashi tea, or pre-dirt in anywhere from 6 months to 2 years. But if you want me to make dirt? I'll need a decade to get you a production level process that requires raw stocks, pre-processing, vermiculture, aquaculture, and many rounds of late stage funding. Dirt production stymies every modern industrial process because as it stands, you cannot reduce the time necessary for conversion from hummus to dirt. I find it beautifully tragic that terraforming Mars will require mass dirt transfer from earth (consider this tonnage conundrum and revel in the irony).

Don't take my word for it. Go out and try to make earth yourself. If you can reinvent this fundamental, elementary process, you will join Jonas Salk and Fritz Haber, and very few others, in changing The Game in a fundamental way.