I don’t know how they come up with the numbers but I still think that menus and toolbars were much more discoverable and faster to use than the ribbon :)
https://blogs.msdn.microsoft.com/jensenh/2006/01/31/flea-mar...
https://blogs.msdn.microsoft.com/jensenh/2005/10/31/inside-d...
I wasn't kidding when I said they went through a lot of numbers while designing the ribbon (I read the whole blog archive at one point).
On top of that, the new UI is way more discoverable for new and intermediate users. And at the end of the day, beginners are let's say 10% of the users, intermediate users at various levels are probably something like 85% and power users are probably only 5% ;)