Say there are ten "events" that have had recessions follow them (or not). Each of these events happened 10 times.
For the first type of a event, a recession happened just once afterwards.
For the second type of event, a recession happened twice.
For the third type of event, a recession happened three times
The third, a recession happened three times.
The fourth, a recession happened four out of ten times.
The fifth, a recession happened five times.
Etc...
This has very little to do with flipping a coin, and much more to do with deciding the right time to pay attention.
Half a chance of getting hit by a car is not the same as "flipping a coin."
Generally, throughout the past hundred years or so, there has been much less than a 50% chance to enter a recession. I don't know the numbers, but for any given year, it could be 10%. If there is now a 50% chance, isn't that a 5 fold increase in risk?