It's Inadequate Equilibria by Eliezer Yudkowsky: https://equilibriabook.com/inadequacy-and-modesty/
Yudkowsky agreed with a small group of economists, and disagreed with the Japanese equivalent of the Federal Reserve. You might think, "The Japanese Federal Reserve has every incentive and resource to be correct about growth policies, and this small group of economists has no insight they don't have," but the story is more complicated than that.
I have been through it myself more times than I care to mention. Everyone assumes that the other person has some knowledge they don't know about or has some secret "edge"...they never do.
Amd after ten years or so, I learned that people do weird things for one simple reason: they are fucking stupid. That is it. They won't learn from mistakes. They are overconfident. They are greedy. Intelligence doesn't matter. Money doesn't matter. Whatever, they are just incurably dumb.
And btw: organisations are never well optimised for stuff that matters. Finance is the prime example of this. If I wanted to set fire to $100bn, I would do exactly what SoftBank are doing right now.
I know that everyone here believes in technology and continuing progress into infinity. This is true in some areas, it is not true in finance.
It reminds me of a response I got in a theological debate: “you really think you’re smarter than pastor ABC?” No, I simply agree with the pastors that disagree with him!
That doesn't apply here.
Of course, an appeal to authority is not a valid method of obtaining new knowledge (an authority would be able to formulate the actual arguments that support it). It is a useful method to defer judgment, however, such as when the authority cannot be expected to come in and explain their reasoning in a Hacker News comment.