HTML5 has gotten to the point where I think we can safely assume there won't be major new features added. Meaning HTML5 won't be able to...
- Record audio and video
- Support advanced video features like overlays
- Support pay media features like tracking, DRM, etc...
- Support out of browser experience (though I suppose each browser could implement this)
- Support multi-threading (though I suppose each browser could implement this)
- and others I can't think of off the top of my head
So either Flash or Silverlight will still have a future long after everyone's using HTML 5 based browsers. The question is whether Microsoft can capitalize on Flash's diminishing position and use successes like Netflix to supplant Adobe.
(Which is why I said Microsoft is being stupid by not giving Silverlight more support)