I am tired of reading blog posts from "bubble predictors" | Hacker News Reader

I am tired of reading blog posts from "bubble predictors"

jordancooper.wordpress.com

14 pointsjordancooper10 comments

So stop reading them. Problem solved.

The internet isn't something that needs to be tamed. You don't have to quiet all the people who have opinions. You don't need to correct people when you think they are wrong. Have strength and just walk away.

i generally agree with this, except when there is a serious information asymmetry between the publisher and the consumer. Sometimes the loudest voices are the ones that are heard and believed, if you have the information to level that asymmetry, why not share it. that is also what the interent is about, no?

http://xkcd.com/386/

Someone is wrong on the internet!

i like that

You're interpreting the title too literally.

For those skipping right to the comments: basically, this is a consumer of startup financing:

* sticking up for the law of supply and demand because it currently favors him, and

* criticizing producers of startup financing for complaining about supply and demand when it disfavors them.

Except that Jordan is also an angel investor, so he certainly has a valuable perspective: http://jordancooper.wordpress.com/lerer-ventures/

Would be great to have more hard data on this "bubble". Most deal terms are only available second or third hand and require some effort at parsing.

The investments people usually associated with bubbles (stocks, real estate, gold, bonds) are all published widely. Helps fuel mania. I know sophisticated investors who have no idea how angel investing works and have never heard of Y-Combinator. Doesn't sound like bubble conditions to me.

I agree it's not a large-scale bubble, but I think it will still qualify as a small-scale one -- a "bubble in a teapot", if I may mix metaphors -- if a lot of angels invest in low-quality deals and run themselves out of money.

There's a key difference, though, between this situation and one conducive to bubble formation: the successes of the deals aren't correlated. The success of one startup doesn't make the next more likely to succeed. It may cause the next to attract more investor interest, but once it gets going it still has to succeed or fail as a business. Thus the valuations are still ultimately grounded in reality. Also, it's not the case that a startup is passed from owner to owner the way that, say, real estate is.

So I prefer the alternative explanation that we as a society are simply getting better at nurturing startups. (I.e., I'm agreeing with you.) That certainly is sustainable.

"Personally, I welcome anyone who wants to cut a $50K check to support a new product and pull a smart mind out of wall street or advertising or any other industry that is not pushing the limits of what can be."

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