How is that even possible? even warren buffett only averaged around 15-20 a year
How is that even possible? even warren buffett only averaged around 15-20 a year
I think Medallion is somewhere between HFT and stat arb, probably a mix of multiple strategies along those time frames. The faster you trade independent opportunities, the more you recycle capital, and prime brokers extend tons of leverage. When I worked in HFT, our profits were bound by other factors way before cash, and my desk's ROC was far higher than this when doing well (even when doing poorly, ROC was quite high. It was the expenses of finding those returns that killed us).
If all the money is employees', Medallion is basically just a prop firm. The employees paid out of the fund are essentially partners/owners, and the rest earn discretionary payouts of management/performance fees.
Even within the fund structure, most profit is return on labor, not capital. I'm sure if you compare margins paid to partners in professional services firms like law or consulting vs. typical publicly traded companies, they're also far higher, but Cravath, McKinsey, etc. won't let you buy in as a passive investor; you have to work for it.
ETA: If you're wondering how it's possible to earn 80% returns, or even more: there are myriad tiny inefficiencies you can trade on given the right research and infrastructure. I'm sure 80% is simply the point at which Medallion makes the optimal $ per year relative to risk. They could probably throttle back, make less $ on smaller capital, but far higher percentage return, if they wanted.
But you can’t do that for a trillion dollars, because the “price” of an asset is just the best offer to buy or sell, and those are capped at the quantity of the best offer. Once you exhaust those, the arbitrage might not exist anymore because the remaining best offers will be worse. Say the market has capacity to actively exploit arbitrage for $10,000. You will earn the same amount of dollars if you have $1,000,000 or $10,000 if you exploit it to the max, but your return will be 100x better if your base is $10,000.
>If a fund earns 80% returns, but has no means to compound the resulting profits through the same mechanism, whoever receives them naturally puts them into something with worse returns, so their wealth still grows slowly over time.
i don't see why this matters at that AUM. treat it as a fixed annuity for the fund members and it's still fantastically successful (if you know of a savings account that i can safely withdraw 80% of 10b from every year for 20 years please let me know).
>Even within the fund structure, most profit is return on labor, not capital.
i think this is just a matter of "levels of abstraction". if i invest in a mutual fund that has portfolio managers and analysts are my returns thereby ROC or returns on labor? obviously according to GAAP they're returns on capital but inside the mutual fund there are people laboring away. if i in-house that mutual fund along with all of that research infrastructure why does it suddenly become return on labor? it's the same economic activity.
Of course it isn't just that simple. Leveraging a strategy should increase it's downside risk along with it's returns. But somehow Rentech does it while never actually experiencing that downside risk. That's their mathematical genius. And the fact that they employ so many brilliant mathematical minds leads me to believe that part may be real.
The latest Senate hearing link: https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/REPORT-Abuse%20of...
If I invest $1B and borrow another $9B, my base returns need to exceed the borrowing costs of the $9B just to break even.
Three words: Mortgage Backed Securities. Large banks with entire risk modelling departments have made multi-billion-dollar errors in recent memory.
I have a complete lack of faith that any institution whose day-to-day experience completely differs from their catastrophic risk scenario is ever truly prepared.
The personal and organizational strain of maintaining constant vigilance against an invisible enemy is simply too high.
People get lazy, complacent, and think they're more prepared than they are. That's just human nature.
While it is possible that they're making their profits by shifting risk onto unsophisticated players, it's certainly not necessary for them to do that to make money. They have the smartest people in the world working for them.
It was always about the amount of borrow available, and the tax paid on the gains. The (illegal) strategies they used allowed for much larger borrow amounts, as well as only paying long term capital gains, when in reality there were millions of trades.
The simple setup: Rentech pays the bank $1B for a call option. The call option is on a $10B pot of money. The bank then hires Rentech to invest the pot of money for them. After a year or two, Rentech then exercises it's call option, which gives it everything in the pot except the bank's $9B plus a fee. The banks loved this fee. And since this was a year long call option, all gains are taxed as long term. They avoided $6B in taxes doing this.
So no, your net capital use is not $0 in your example
Why do you think their use of leverage is illegal?
No, there aren’t. Reg T limits initial leverage for retail investors in equity securities to 2:1 and FINRA rules maintainence leverage to 4:1 [1]. There are no similar broad-market rules for institutions. (Retail investors, likewise, can leverage much more for FX and—more commonly—real estate.)
[1] https://www.sec.gov/reportspubs/investor-publications/invest...
No, there are not for institutional investors. Rentech fell into an interesting dispute (tigger with Deutsche Bank) with the IRS regarding long-term capital gains. If I want to lever my institution 10,000:1, and can find a lender who will lend against it, there is no law prohibiting me from doing so.
Disclaimer: I am not a lawyer. This is not legal advice.
I definitely should have been more clear with my original statements. Maybe something more along the lines of: at rentech's scale, using a margin account at a prime broker, you cannot leverage your firm 16x.
[0] https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/REPORT-Abuse%20of...
The Senate report is crap. Yes, Reg T and FINRA rules limit the loans B-Ds can provide clients. But leverage, for Reg T’s purposes, is constrained to lending. I can buy a 3x leveraged ETF [1] as a retail trader without violating Reg T. (With options, I could easily increase that leverage without borrowing.) All of this is not only permitted, but common.
Reg T does not exist to protect investors. It exists to keep broker-dealers from going bust from dud margin loans. (And thereby prompting a systemic crisis.)
The leverage RenTech took is in the non-lending and non-systemic (legal) category. The exposure that most closely puts RenTech in the lending bucket is the exposure Deutsche Bank carried on its balance sheet for tax purposes. (This tax avoidance was the core of the scandal.)
Long story short, unless you’re a politician, it doesn’t make sense to talk about RenTech’s illegal leverage. Lots of other market participants, by regular practice, are levered far more.
Was the leverage in the non-lending category though? Isn't that like saying their gains were long-term? That's the whole point of this, no? They used some different terminology to reclassify loans and taxes, in order to use more leverage and pay less tax than they normally would have.
I guess another way to put it: would there have been a way for RenTech to hold the same portfolio, using the same leverage, with the same payout characteristics, that no government agency would have issues with? Maybe the answer is yes, but I doubt it.
Yes, quite easily. In fact, highly-leveraged portfolios like the one RenTech held are an essential feature of market making, which was historically done using banks’ balance sheets. RenTech’s shenanigans were around tax. Everything else is commentary.
(On the Senate report, the whole thing isn’t crap. But that section is crap as in it’s written for political purposes and has limited bearing with respect to the law.)
This is more about what rentech does after they've made all their money trading... To avoid capital gains taxes. Sure, it's just another way to make more money, but it's not their core strategy.
While 80% is extreme, 15-20% is not and I know many people that can do that consistently. Anecdotally, one strategy I developed many years ago that was designed to be easily applied to retirement accounts (so that close friends and family could, and do, use it) has returned an average of 20% annually through boom and bust, outperforming the S&P500 every single year. It didn't require being super-clever, just observant and analytical.
I think we tend to overstate the difficulty of getting a good return to scare people away from pursuing naive and/or stupid strategies in a futile effort to find easy returns.
Again I've seen the same just running a single HFT desk within a larger firm. The only time we ever lost money was from rare technology errors. Trading equities, even if one position spikes 5-10% bad on news, you will still make money, because it's just one little position out of the thousands of tickers you trade. Even guys making far fewer bets in asset classes like FX only ever lost on extreme dislocations like the Euro/Swiss unpeg.
If you make a large number of bets, even with just a tiny statistical edge, you will be consistently profitable. RenTech probably isn't profitable every day, but I bet over a year they make at least as many bets as someone like Virtu makes in a day, so it's not surprising that they never have a down year, provided they have the edge.
1: Now does this mean Virtu the business made a profit above cost every day? Probably not. But it does show that consistent trading profits are achievable.
> Imagine how suspicious it would be if, for instance, your local supermarket made money on every carton of milk that it sold. That just seems too good to be true, doesn't it? How can they know the price of milk before you do? Shouldn't they be losing money on half of their milk, and making it on the other half, so that things balance out? Doesn't the fact that they always make money suggest that they're ripping you off? [...] That is, Virtu (like Goldman) is selling a product, and that product is liquidity, and it charges for that product. High-frequency trading firms are in the business of acting as middlemen, providing a valuable service by letting buyers and sellers trade as soon as they want to, rather than waiting for fundamental sellers/buyers to come in on the other side of the market.
As I understand it, RenTech is taking an investment position which is why the returns are remarkable whereas virtu is (as Levine puts it), selling liquidity.
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2014-03-20/why-do...
From what Virtu's published, they make two-way markets, and once filled they scalp a tick, arbitrage in another product, or cross if the market becomes weak. Maybe RenTech does something like buy underpriced oil producers whose prices haven't moved up after bellwether stocks in the industry like XOM and CVX have, then sell once the spread between them converges. I'm sure both firms have loads of different tactics. The key thing is that they're mildly better than chance.
This is vastly different than making money in the markets just by connecting to an execution venue and receiving market data.
In the former you have a clear edge over the market because you receive dumb uninformed flow. In the latter example you are left to fend for yourself and challenge the EMH purely through your math skills and insights.
With that out of the way, obviously no one except those who work for them knows what they actually do. What we do know for sure if that they are highly levered, use an entirely systematic/algorithmic investment process, and do a shit load of trading. So even if they don't earn a lot on each trade, they do so many that are just barely profitable and highly levered that it ends up being a lot of money.
A good starting point..if wall Street is consistently shitting on a stock, it's probably something to check out and do some research on.
We cant invest and dont have enough information to assess whether it is a ponzi scheme or not.
Its possible that this one fund has generated excessive outperformance with low volatility, but we should start by assuming it didnt, then prove otherwise