I filed my taxes with TurboTax last year. Did you account for state tax deduction, mortgage deduction, property tax deduction, standard deduction, child tax credits, 401k deductions, charity deductions, and a myriad of other options ? There is no way for anyone to say what an accurate effective rate would be. Mine was 28% last year
There are new rules that are not particularly advantageous for people making good money in CA due to the fact that CA has a fairly high state income tax rate and the new limits for the bucket of deductions it fits in.