Hacker News Reader

Comment by Aser | Hacker News Reader

> For many, owning a car to commute will make as much sense as owning a cell tower to scroll Instagram.

This is total rubbish. I don't believe for a second that taking a self-driving uber to work and back everyday will be cheaper than driving my own car.

View on HN

Why do you believe that? Which is to say, is this something you've worked out with numbers or is it a reflexive intuitive judgement? Because if it's the later you should recognize that your intuition is based on prices that include the labor of the person driving you which won't be included in a self driving car.

Brad Templeton did some math and thinks that self driving cars will be cheaper on a per-mile basis if you sometimes take smaller cars when you need to.

https://ideas.4brad.com/robotaxi-economics

Why not? Suppose your commute occupies the car for 1/24th of the hours of the day. In theory you could pay for only that usage.

There would be some markup so the owning company has a profit margin, but the higher the price is, the greater the incentive for competitors to exist, which would exert downward pressure. So maybe you'd end up paying 1/20 the price of owning a car.

If you don't agree, why not?

Most of the cost of operating a car is directly proportional to the usage of said car. Some costs per unit distance go down, some go up. In the end, if you need a car daily there is almost no way a service will work out cheaper.

Eventually you will own the car and the costs will decrease dramatically. My wife’s corolla is 14 years old, gets 30 miles a gallon, and costs about $250 a year due to failing sensors and a MAF replacement.

If I used Uber every time I’ve used her corolla in the past 10 years it would far outweigh the cost of gas, insurance, and fixing the car.

You’ve completely left out the cost of the car though. Even over a 14 year period if you bought the car new for $15k (2005 MSRP Corolla LE) you’re still at roughly $90/month. Factor in insurance, gas, and continued maintenance and you’re at a couple hundred a month. Of course that number continues to fall but eventually you buy a new car. If ride sharing moves to a subscription model of just a straight $200-300/mo I think it completely obliterates the market for individually owned small cars used primarily for commuting.

He also left out driving in a car which was not covered in vomit from the previous rider.

If the car is soiled you'll indicate it via the app, they send an other car and make the previous user to pay for cleaning.

When people learn they have to pay for cleaning/repairs if they don't take care of the car then they will be much more careful keeping it clean.

I can take a 1.5 mile Uber to Waffle House and it costs me $7-8 dollars each way. The Uber to Waffle House costs more than my meal. I give it as an example because Ive done it often. Almost the same distance to Publix, Lowe’s, more restaurants, and public transport.

Uber pool is cheaper but why would I inconvenience myself so much for a 2 miles radius.

No I don't agree. When I go to work in the morning there is nobody at work who wants to go elsewhere and there won't be until lunch time. Either the shared car is burning fuel driving empty to get back out to where people live who want to get to work, or it is sitting in a parking lot. The first makes the shared car more expensive, the second is just what we have today so I may as well own the car and get the convenience of being able to store things in the car (golf clubs for example).

Even in the best case, there are lot more people who want to get around during "rush hour" than the rest of the day, so most shared cars could at most work for 2-3 people each day. The types of people who are on the road during not rush hour are more likely to have a larger group (kids) with them so the shared car needed for them is a different size.

So that might be true for people who commute from a relatively remote location to another remote location. For someone like me who lives in an urban environment, autonomous ride shading would absolutely be more efficient than owning a car.

What would the monthly subscription have to cost to make it financially worthwhile? I drive a bought and paid for car and if they could move me to and from work for $200/month our household would happily become a one car household. That bought and paid for car still costs me $75/mo insurance, ~$40/mo gas, amortization of the purchase price is probably in the $150/mo range, and since it’s 8 years old increasing maintenance costs. Additionally it will eventually need to be replaced which costs many thousands.

I don’t think a subscription model is too far fetched at all. We definitely intend to at least consider being a one car household, even at current ride share prices, when the current secondary car reaches end of life.

I don't think most people think about it like you do. Americans tend to spend far more on cars than they need to. An awful lot of SUVs and expensive German cars are sold to people that could probably get by with an inexpensive sedan or hatchback.

I do live in Texas though, so my experience might not be typical.

I live in Detroit area. You’re right. Pickups and full size SUVs galore.

A lot of people replying to your skepticism with skepticism. Here's some numbers.

If you live in the city:

- Cost of Ubering to/from work could be about $3.50 per trip, or about $1,750 per year.

- TCO of car ownership (based on this tool[1]) is $878 per month, and with $125/month for parking (a lowball), you get $12,036 per year.

If you live in the suburbs:

- Uber estimate one way from Phoenixville to downtown Philadelphia is $43.41 with Uber Pool. That's $21,705 per year.

So if you live in the city, owning a car would cost you 6.87x more money. But if you live in the suburbs, Uber would cost you nearly double that.

[1] https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/loans/total-cost-owning-car/

(Keep in mind if you already paid off your car, your yearly TCO is still $4,260 per year, or 2.43x more than using Uber if living in the city)

For me, on the hypothetical that I get a new car, taking two ubers every day is cheaper than driving right now.

I'm keeping my old car while it's viable, but after it stops being, I'm not sure what I'll do (there is some convenience to add there too).

If you're sharing a large van with others, it absolutely can approach cheaper.

And in many places, commuting is precisely the time when shared car-sharing would work best. It's more flexible than carpools, but a lot of people are headed from general-residential-areas to general-work-areas at generally-the-same-time (often with a little flexibility).

Reply on news.ycombinator.com