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Comment by michaelscott | Hacker News Reader

There's no payout if the horse doesn't win. It doesn't operate like the stock market.

He/she just means that if a bet is genuinely underpriced, the expected value of taking it will be positive. (So if you can reliably find these bets, you'll profit in the long run.)

The odds reflect the horse's supposed chance of winning or placing (or whatever else it takes to get a payout), not its expected position -- so this isn't a case where you can be aware that the horse is underrated, but have no way to make a +EV bet on that knowledge.

Exactly, for example yesterday I placed over 5000 bets, not all of them won but as far as my strategies were concerned they were value and should therefore be in profit over the long term.

Yeah over the long term, but I thought this was already implied. All I'm saying is that "beating" other bettors is not enough to ensure success because of the means by which payouts are made. I suspect you feel this is also implied though, so I think we're probably on the same page.

In fairness, the stock market doesn't operate "like the stock market," if by that you mean reliably reward a value pick, either.

The first order of business in these things is certainly to spot the overlay/value pick/+EV situation. The second order of business is to manage bankroll/vol to be able to realize the EV over time -- but that is generally speaking much easier and more mechanical than the core insight of (repeatably) finding the EV...

This is not correct, either. Horse racing allows bets on the second and third finishers, as well, not just the winner.

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