this link is _fantastic_ , thank you for sharing it, i haven't heard this argument before .
First: For a given constant T > 0 there exists C > 0 such that Temp(earth) <= T implies Energy(earth) <= C
> Right, if you plot the U.S. energy consumption in all forms from 1650 until
> now, you see a phenomenally faithful exponential at about 3% per year over
> that whole span. The situation for the whole world is similar. So how long
> do you think we might be able to continue this trend?
> Alright, the Earth has only one mechanism for releasing heat to space, and
> that’s via (infrared) radiation. We understand the phenomenon perfectly
> well, and can predict the surface temperature of the planet as a function of
> how much energy the human race produces. The upshot is that at a 2.3% growth
> rate (conveniently chosen to represent a 10× increase every century), we
> would reach boiling temperature in about 400 years. [Pained expression from
> economist.] And this statement is independent of technology. Even if we
> don’t have a name for the energy source yet, as long as it obeys
> thermodynamics, we cook ourselves with perpetual energy increase.
> At that 2.3% growth rate [of global energy consumption], we would be using
> energy at a rate corresponding to the total solar input striking Earth in a
> little over 400 years. We would consume something comparable to the entire
> sun in 1400 years from now. By 2500 years, we would use energy at the rate
> of the entire Milky Way galaxy—100 billion stars! I think you can see the
> absurdity of continued energy growth. 2500 years is not that long, from a
> historical perspective. We know what we were doing 2500 years ago. I think
> I know what we’re not going to be doing 2500 years hence.
> If we tried to generate energy at a rate commensurate with that of the Sun
> in 1400 years, and did this on Earth, physics demands that the surface of
> the Earth must be hotter than the (much larger) surface of the Sun.
Second: Energy(earth) / GDP(earth) >= K > 0 > Then in order to have real GDP growth on top of flat energy, the fractional
> cost of energy goes down relative to the GDP as a whole.
> How far do you imagine this can go? Will energy get to 1% of GDP? 0.1%? Is
> there a limit?
> if energy became arbitrarily cheap, someone could buy all of it, and
> suddenly the activities that comprise the economy would grind to a halt
That is, assuming we want Temp(earth) <= T for some constant temperature T,
then there exist positive constants C > 0, K > 0 such that Energy(earth) <= C
and Energy(earth) / GDP(earth) >= K > 0 . Therefore GDP(earth) <= C / K .