> Do we possess a Bayesian brain that estimates probabilities in real time?
You should read Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" - the answer is a resounding "No".
You should read Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" - the answer is a resounding "No".
For Gigerenzer, you might wish to start out here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerd_Gigerenzer#Heuristics
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1479277914300003... (Available here: http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/gg_how_1991.pdf)
And for Stanovich et al., you might want to start out here:
http://cognet.mit.edu/book/rationality-quotient
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dysrationalia
Stanovich et al. showed that Kahneman & Tversky's classical "System 1/System 2" dual process model as one too simplistic, outlining at least 3 systems involved:
* The Autonomous Mind
* The Reflective Mind
* The Algorithmic Mind
For points addressed by both Gigerenzer as well as Stanovich et al, see here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Rationality_Debate
None of this of course directly addresses your "Bayesian brain" point, however, for that, you might want to take a look at "some" articles by psychiatrist Scott Alexander, many of which speculative but citing a lot of sources you might wish to look into:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZiQqsgGX6a42Sfpii/the-apolog...
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/euJm4RwkAptZnP89i/bayes-for-...
https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/08/28/mysticism-and-pattern-...
http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/09/12/its-bayes-all-the-way-u...
http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/06/28/why-are-transgender-peo...
http://slatestarcodex.com/2018/12/11/diametrical-model-of-au...
https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/10/paradigms-all-the-way-...
(And here, as a bonus, an article on dreaming, by Eliezer Yudkowsky: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8z2Fm2yaHpQz8rr5B/dreams-wit...)