I think this is all true, but one important factor is that there's currently an assumption that any serious project must necessarily use all this complexity, which makes your second point true - but not in a way that's the fault of javascript, but more the community around it.

If you're making a simple site, or even a fairly simple application, the typical modern Javascript toolchain is absolutely unneeded complexity. It's not even React - many developers will turn their nose up on anything that isn't using Redux / Typescript / GraphQL / whatever flavour of the week is popular, even on sites where Javascript itself is probably not that big a requirement. As an example, we're all talking on a site that has almost no Javascript and works perfectly well - but I have no doubt that if you hired a developer to build a site like this in 2018 it would absolutely use a typical complex setup.

That isn't Javascript's fault, really - no library demands that you use it for everything, and many like Redux make it a point to push users away from using them inappropriately. But the Javascript community is currently in a phase that's probably unhealthily pushed towards the new, shiny, more complex library, regardless of how well it suits the problem.