That's a good point, I haven't actually spent a lot of time on Popper, though I was amused to find that under some interpretation of his argument, the most extreme varieties of obvious pseudoscience fall under science. In particular I wasn't aware the article even addressed Popper, in particular what's in footnote ii:

>Strictly speaking any method can be made to falsify claims with the addition of a falsification rule. However, the rule must still be shown to be reliable.

At the very least, I think it's shaky to try and apply the same standard regardless of the actual method of the science - since some fields take different approaches to others. That's not to say that all approaches are valid, but that one idea of science in one field shouldn't necessarily need to hold up in other one. Some sciences obviously greatly benefit (or did in the past) from even a simple statement of falsifiability, but to others it seems like a total mismatch for the problem domain.

I hadn't considered Bayes' rule to work that way (my only exposure to statistics is an intro course on information theory as part of an EE degree) but if I'm right, this opens up a discussion as to how risky is risky enough - is astrology still in the picture then?