The upward pressure on prices is also from the insurers. Insurers have an "80/20 rule" from Obamacare that only 20% of their revenue can be spent on non-medical expenses (ie. profit, insurance administrative overhead, etc.). They pretty quickly hit the caps, and now only by increasing medical expenditures (the other 80%) can the pie slice that contains their profit grow year after year.
If there was one health insurance marketplace and set of rules, and everyone, young, old, poor, rich, healthy, infirm, we’re forced to buy from it, then it would actually be possible for insurance companies to compete.
Right now, it’s basically a game of hot potato to try and not get stuck with the million dollar hemophiliacs in each state. A lot of the healthy are separated out into employer based insurance plans, and there’s not sufficient possibility of business to have more than one or two insurance offerings on healthcare.gov.
I'm merely debunking your assertion that insurance companies don't have a financial incentive to keep costs high.
What's the trend line since 2010? Since the 80/20 rule went into effect, has the rate of provider costs increased or decreased or stayed the same? If it hasn't increased, does your hypothesis actually explain any empirical observations?
If not, are you concerned this might be a just-so story?