Fracking’s Secret Problem–Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast

wsj.com

“I certainly expect many of today’s estimates will turn out to have been pretty optimistic,” said Francis O’Sullivan, director of research for the MIT Energy Initiative, which has examined shale forecasting. He said the complex geology of shale basins and assumptions based on a small number of wells could make forecasts unreliable. “There is profound variability in the performance of these wells,” he said.

Schlumberger Ltd. , the oil-field-services giant, reported in a research paper that secondary shale wells completed near older, initial wells in West Texas have been as much as 30% less productive than the initial ones. The problem threatens to upend growth projections for America’s hottest oil field, the company said in October.

To see the full article, google for "Fracking’s Secret Problem" and the referrer header should let you read it.

It could be incredibly disruptive to US and global energy prices if shale e&p projects are such that multiple current companies are not economical (lower recovery rates, and incrementally worse production at tighter well spacings)

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