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Comment by verdverm | Hacker News Reader

A year ago, I was explaining to family why crypto was a thing. This year I'm explaining why it crashed and why it's to be avoided. Also, why blockchain and crypto are not the same thing.

There are many who participated in the 2017 speculation that will actively avoid and advise against participation this go around. The bubble popped and it will be many years before we see worthy investments take shape.

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To think anyone can predict the market (good or bad) is foolish. You could easily flip your statement in support of crypto and it would be equally meaningless. Having participated in crypto since 2013, the only thing that I (or anyone else for that matter) knows is that _no one_ has a clue what they're talking about it.

It's pure speculation in both directions.

We could see BTC go sub $1k in Q1, or we could see it hit another ATH as those that got left out in 2017 FOMO in.

No one, not a single person, has any idea.

I think another factor is that we've passed peak uncritical press coverage. Never again will there be as large an influx of media-driven naive optimists who think that the price will only go up.

That isn't true, it depends on the whims of the people who determine what those optimists say and write.

I am pretty clearly offering an opinion here, so I'm not asserting that it's true. But the naive optimists I'm speaking of here were the greater fools [1] who bought Bitcoin as it was rising. Journalists are generally cynics.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

There's also been a crackdown on crypto advertisement by the ad-tech giants.

Further there's a more aware SEC and I imagine there'll be a few examples made to make everyone think twice.

I never understand why people try to separate blockchain and bitcoin.

Probably because Blockchain got also used outside cryptocurrencies and furthermore because there are now cryptocurrencies that are not Blockchain-based?

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