Americans Don’t Understand How Bad Climate Change Is or What They Can Do
huffingtonpost.com
huffingtonpost.com
Let's assume the currently likely scenario of 4 degree C average warming by 2100. The article quotes Ed Maibach, director of the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, that he finds it "to be nothing short of terrifying". Okay, let's elaborate and present the actually terrifying predictions to the people - where can I get them? Given that 4 degree global warming scenario, what's the predicted local warming in Texas? Given the global sea level rise, which parts of Florida are going to flood by 2100? Given the predicted changes in rainfall, what is going to be the effect on crop yields in Midwest? 2100 is too far away to be meaningful for most people, what is the realistic bad case scenario by 2050 or 2070, what are the mid-term impacts?
Don't just say "it's terrifying" but actually terrify people with data! And not just any data, but data that's relevant to them personally; a Midwest farmer doesn't care about crop yields falling in tropical regions (or might even prefer it, less competition=higher prices) and vice versa - to meaningfully convince a person living in Florida you need data about how Florida is going to be affected; to convince a person living in London, you need data about the expected impact on London. Is there such data available?
This “impacts” report is based on the science NCA report from last year, so if you want the science drivers, see that one. For the first time, both reports are highly regionally decomposed (again, across the US).
One example if you want alarming:
“Recent economic analysis finds that under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), it is likely (a 66% probability, which corresponds to the Intermediate-Low to Intermediate sea level rise scenarios) that between $66 billion and $106 billion worth of real estate will be below sea level by 2050; and $238 billion to $507 billion, by 2100.” (https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/8/)
The report has much, much more.
As I skim it, nothing in that report has anything to convince people that "we're all going to horribly suffer if we don't act NOW". Yes, the effects are bad, but any personal impact I can derive from the descriptions in that report are on the same scale as the affected people would see in any major economic downturn.
The regional chapters in particular seem to have very little alarming content; it seems to center on "yep, this area is slowly to get worse, so we need extra infrastructure and preparation" - the described effects sound like sufficient justification for an 1% tax rate hike and doubling of insurance premiums, but not sufficient justification to mandate serious lifestyle change to try and prevent the consequences.
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09268
[2] https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ocean-p...
[3] https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/jou...
What is the expected specific, immediate, local effect of that? Can you tell a particular person (the abovementioned Midwest farmer) some particular clear consequence of phytoplankton decline he's going to personally experience in his lifetime (say, 2070) or the lifetime of his kids (say, 2100) if he doesn't do the utmost to prevent climate change change ?
The articles you quoted make no really scary (to the target audience) claims whatsoever. The third includes an expected impact on agriculture (https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/figure/image?d...) which shows neutral or even positive effects on agriculture in much of first world (and horrible effects on Brasil and SE Asia, but that's not relevant to the USA consumer whom we're asking to change habits).
You are absolutely right that the discussion needs to be far heavier on what the concrete consequences will be, not in abstract numbers, but in how it will actually affect the lives of their children and grandchildren.
The messaging needs to be ubiquitous. Climate change should be the main topic every single damn day.
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[0]: https://www.sciencealert.com/these-100-companies-are-to-blam...
The problem is that climate change requires substantial sacrifice from everone. And everyone tries to twist things in such way that the others will do the sacrificing.
The auto and energy industries don't pollute because it's fun. They do it in the course of fulfilling our demand for suburban lifestyles.
Or, what if I live in rural America? How do you expect me to give up my car?
What if I already drive less than 10k miles a year?
Commuting from the countryside is one of the things that'll have to go if we are to eliminate emissions. (Farmers and residents of traditional small towns are generally already pretty close to where they need to be when they wake up in the morning).
It's nonsensical to say something like "how do you expect me to give up my car?" with incredulity, and then blame the energy sector for supplying its fuel.
[0]: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/budget-...
IMHO, the key is to ensure that every bit of news about climate change is validated by unimpeachable sources. There have been more than a few incidents where claims about the amount of damage coming have been exaggerated-- this feeds doubts.
News sources (Fox included) regularly carry items that describe the problem. If everyone believed what was written (even if they are only looking at Fox, nowhere else) I really believe there would be more concern.
The entire country of America could disappear tomorrow and it would not be of huge consequence to climate change.
[0] https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2018/07/01/china-emits-...
Supressing superior technology is extremely hard. If you succeed it is just not superior enough.
The technology just isn't there currently...
Could it be because every other civilised country on the planet uses the metric system and wouldn't know wtf 3-7 degrees F is?
> almost every American is thinking about the heat on a hot summer day in Fahrenheit
Which sounds worse: going from 36C to 40C or 97F to 104?
For the U.S. market, Farhenheit works better. At first look to an American, 104 is SEVEN greater than 97; 40 is only four bigger than 36; 36 is slightly over freezing; and 40 is noticeably more comfortable. You might think that Americans are going to think about ratios and worry that 40/36 might be greater than 104/97, but 1) calculating ratios like that is not a common U.S. thing, and 2) by using an arbitrary end point, Farhenheit discourages applying ratios to temperatures.
On second look, for an American, those numbers should not be attended to at all, because they are shrouded in the ambiguity of what you will get after you do the math. About half of Americans can't do multi-step math even with pencil and paper (according to the National Adult Literacy Survey of the National Center for Educational Statistics in the U.S. government).
There is nothing misleading in translating to to Fahrenheit. Why sacrifice rhetorical advantage by trying to make Americans more "civilised"? (Mind you, on that front we're already doomed, spelling it "civilized".)
What this brings up is endowing Huffpost with automated localization.
The article started with “Americans” and not “We” so I assumed it was written for an international audience. I think the general theme of the article is pretty global and not just applicable to Americans. I can see the same thing happening here in Australia.
A small temperature change won’t have much affect on anything, really, except where it does. Those places will be where the temperatures hover around freezing point of water (in whatever units you choose). Regions that usually have mild frost or snow in winter won’t get that any more. That will have a huge change on the flora and fauna. Plant species that cannot tolerate frost will invade and displace the natives.
In Australia the warming effect is being felt already by wine growers. Regions previously too cold for grapes are being converted to vineyards. Regions currently growing cold-climate grapes are being replanted to warmer climate varieties.
All hope is lost for that country, somehow the rest of the world will have to figure out how to avoid the worst in climate change without the US.
The fuel tax Macron was planning was going to hit the rural middle/working class and the poor the hardest.
On average, many of these people have to commute around 30 miles to work at low paid service jobs. So their work commuting costs are a big part of their monthly bills.
And then Macron came along and asked them if they'd kindly help with paying some of the costs of climate change.
The proposed fuel bill didn't hit the people living in the cities as badly, because, on average, they're better paid, have better public transport options and live closer to their workplace.
You can understand why people living in rural towns and outside the cites got a little-pissed off and decided to protest. The increase fuel tax was going to hit them way harder than those living in the cities. And those poorer people are being squeezed already, due to having a longer work commute, crap work pay, crap job options, and worse public transport options.
Anyway, if you want more info on this listen to this video by the Mark Blyth. He can explain it better than I ever can: https://youtu.be/Sk87JHTyozo?t=641