This is not what the disagreement is about. It’s got nothing to do with uncertainty in the predictions and the debate is not about saying for certain what is going to happen. We know that distributions have means and variances so one can’t say what WILL happen. The point taleb is making is that Nate presents likelihoods and then throws his hands up and says whoa there I’m not saying what is going to happen just look at these likelihoods and draw your own conclusions. When the public naively looks at them and it looks as if it was right he gets praise for being a predictive genius and when the less likely outcome occurs he covers his arse with “well it was part of the 10% chance so I’m still right”. one is approaching stats from a real world perspective of there being consequences for actions and the other wants the praise that comes with being seen as a predictive so and so but never be accountable for his predictions. Put it another way: Nate’s “predictions” are only worth how much money/reputation he stakes on them. So far that’s zero by his own admission