Moral Machine
moralmachine.mit.edu
moralmachine.mit.edu
I agree. It's an angle that the media love but has little real world applicability.
You have a classifier for credit assignment (giving a loan, etc.). The classifier is 99% accurate on the entire population. The classifier is 55% accurate on a small minority. You can improve the minority accuracy to 90% at the cost of 0.3% decrease of general accuracy. What do you do?
For self-driving: Your accident rate is 0.0001% for the entire population. Your accident rate is 0.0003% for black pedestrians at night. You can allocate more compute/research/resources to equalize the accident rate of black pedestrians at the cost of increasing accident rate for the entire population to 0.00011% (or keeping it constant where you may have seen an improvement if you focused on the general population). What do you do?
This is why people are pissed off about the trolly problem. It's all zero-sum hypotheticals when reality is primarily not zero-sum.
See here a visualization of trade-off's between global accuracy and fairness:
http://research.google.com/bigpicture/attacking-discriminati...
Deployment/engineering constraints call for a single model.
Realistic scenario.
Uh, concerning this hypothetical.
I'll admit a scenario of this sort sounds appealing at first blush. But "99%" accuracy rate with credit assignment is transparently absurd if considers it for a second. There is a clear, significant limit to the accuracy that can being assigned to anyone's credit, if credit means "actually repaying". The fundamental uncertainty of the economy guarantees this.
The distinction between this ideal (99%-55%) and whatever it might be in reality ( 65%-55%) matters. What's is the system is squeezing a few more percentage points out of data for a large company. And what is the cost of those percentage points?
[EDIT: ACTUALLY - the pernicious scenario is a system that isn't not any MORE accurate for any group than any other BUT which is NEGATIVELY biased against one group and POSITIVELY biased against another group. That situation is EASY to get when one unselectively slurps up any data available. The inaccuracy of predictor is a problem for the company, the biasedness of the predictor is a problem of the individuals discriminated against]
The situation is that a company really can a total better prediction rate for various desired qualities by using completely biased, unfair markers. (White-skin, went to "a good school", from a wealthy background, dresses well, attractive features...). When one allows "black box optimization" to get those features, what one does is allow the use of these considerations, which all otherwise legally off-limits. Legal strictures against discrimination say that objective measures of black people's ability need to be it, not because other measures never matter but because other measures are unfair, other measures don't consider past discrimination.
As a further example, outside of race or gender considerations, some percentage of employees may be forced to care for a sick relative. Maybe that makes them a potentially less effective employee or worse credit risk or whatever. Human evaluators might have values that such questions outside consideration. For an opaque multidimensional analysis, this may a ding - the human user doesn't even know if it's a ding.
Also don't stare yourself blind on the numbers.
Do you unfairly deny 5 minorities or erroneously deny 10 genpop?
This is reality for today's data scientists.
Right now in the US: You find an informative variable that acts as a proxy for race (such as Facebook likes). It is not forbidden by law to use it, but you have the data showing the proxy effect. Will you add it to the CTR model and get a raise, or do you act and speak up?
Will you let the trolley follow its course and run over 10.000 Chinese dissidents, or make the switch and run over 100 of your colleagues (and friends) who would benefit from a China expansion?
Also, can anyone identify a useful idea that philosophers have come up with in the last 50 years?
Just to set aside the fact that "being murdered" is a terrible metric (do you gauge marine biologists by their diving skills, or astrophysicists by their ability to survive in a vacuum?): a good many philosophers were either murdered or narrowly avoided being murdered in the World War II and/or the Holocaust. Any profession that includes a doctrine of skepticism tends to be among the first targeted for persecution, even if that persecution doesn't involve literal acts of murder.
Ethics involves more than just doing good or bad -- it involves figuring out what we mean by "good" and "bad" to begin with, whether these things correspond to actions, individuals, or outcomes, whether they have respective orderings, and so forth. All of these questions lend themselves better to prolonged thought and discourse rather than sample sizes and expensive scientific instruments.
Here is something ethicists could analyze that would really help convince me that they are taking it seriously: given the cost, the years from your life, the job prospects, and the success percentage, is it ethical to accept someone as a doctoral student specializing in ethics? Maybe they could study different universities and see which make the cut and which don't.
I agree that skeptics are persecuted so if I see group that ought to be skeptics but no one is trying to persecute them, I wonder.
What are you counting as useful, and to what extend must the results from one field be useful in another for such a field to appease you? In mathematics, the proof of Fermat's Last Theorem isn't very useful, but various attempts to prove it opened new branches of maths. I also question whether usefulness should be an end in itself.
Your "realistic scenario" can be reasoned with, and that reasoning is called philosophy. But the other aspect of philosophy is critically examining what we think is obvious. Your statement assumes various ideas of metaethics (that there are good and bad things, and we should strive for the good), ethics (i.e that saving someone, no matter who, is a good thing) and political philosophy (that the state should have the right to demand knowledge of the car's position) and leads the way to questions on the philosophy of law (to what extent one's rights to property and full control over a car coincide with the aims of civil society).
I was suggesting that philosophers would like to reason about my scenario because it would be a lot more interesting than imagining you could build a car that would somehow be forced to choose between running over i.e. ten elderly people or two children, and speculating about who you would program the car to kill. I know my scenario leads to a lot of interesting questions -- unlike the scenarios proposed by the website.
But I reject the claim that any reasoning about the scenario is necessarily philosophy. That's just what philosophers want you to think. For example, imagine if philosophers studied the behaviour of ducks and called it duckosophy. When a duck observes another duck, is that duckosophy? I would say no. The duck would do that even if humans never existed. The relationship is asserted purely on the side of the philosophers. So, I am a non-philosopher, and I reason about things based on knowledge due to lots of other non-philosophers, I'm not engaging in philosophy, even if a bunch of uninvolved people want to assert so.
Also, in particular, see the segment from 0:45 to 1:30: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbzWYjVrvpI
[0] https://www.sealaw.com/maritime-law-cruise-ships-and-assista...
That doesn't make much sense. The primary advantage of emergency vehicles is to transport medics to the site of the emergency so that they can administer first aid and stabilize the person for safe transport to the hospital.
Having just any person off the street pick up a critically injured person is not going to go well. In all likelihood, they'll further injure the person due to their lack of training.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002013830...
On some of the questions, I find the options morally equivalent. So in these situations, if I were programming a solution, I would leave it up to chance and use a random number generator to decide the fate.
It can be avoided by allowing adequate breaking distance between the car in front. Most of the time having to make any decision between swerve and break can be avoided and someone that chooses swerve and kills someone should be charged with manslaughter.
Something non of the self driving cars seem to do is slow down for road conditions.
"Looking at the first question, with female athlete crossing legally as default vs male athlete crossing illegally:
- Both options should involve honking the horn loudly and flashing emergency lights, which might get the humans to run away. There's no guarantee of death either way.
- Are there passengers in the car? If not, it looks like there's an "island" in between the athletes that has traffic lights—big metal poles sticking out of the ground—which the car could crash into and help stop itself. For that matter, can the car drive itself off the road instead?"
I am not an automotive engineer, but here are some techie layman's ideas for implementing such a system. (These ideas have come from many sources, or been inspired by them.)
1) Make autonomous car slow. Slow cars are significantly less lethal. The average speed of populous cities' traffic is pretty slow anyway, and it doesn't really help anyone for impatient human drivers to rush to an intersection so they can wait for a stoplight. Slow autonomous cars will initially be an annoyance to human drivers, but once they outnumber human-operated cars, traffic will get faster and smoother (when all the cars waiting at a stoplight can start moving again in unison at a green light, for instance, instead of what happens with human-driven cars.)
2) Make cars lighter. Stop the Hummerization and SUVization of cars which seeks to armor their occupants (somewhat ineffectively), but puts others at greater risk of harm.
3) Have more exterior crumple zones on cars which can reduce the energy transmitted to pedestrians and other cars in a collision. Cushion the engine block, possibly move it to the back, or do away with it altogether (as in some modern, prototype cars where each wheel has its own electric motor).
4) Reduce the need for people to ride around in cars. Have more telecommuting, more local commerce, more local production, tighter knit communities, less urban sprawl. Have more people-less vehicles take care of making small deliveries (since such driverless, passengerless vehicles could be made even smaller, lighter, and less dangerous than passenger vehicles... and could also sacrifice themselves in the safest way possible if they were ever about to put someone's life in danger.)
5) Move passengerless, transport cars away from people. Program them to drive on roads in unpopulated areas when possible, even if their trips end up being a little longer and slower. Non-sentient cargo is patient.
6) Make autonomous cars self-diagnose and maintain themselves as much possible, checking themselves in to service stations and repair shops when needed so that their tires are always properly inflated, their brake pads are changed in a timely fashion, etc. Make it illegal to operate an improperly maintained car, and force owners to either sell, or dispose of, or temporarily store away their cars if they aren't currently able to afford the required maintenance.
7) Get rid of "stroads" and fast roads that cut right through residential/pedestrian areas. Evaluate and follow many or all of of Strong Towns' recommendations.
To sum it up: let's work on greatly reducing the likelihood of deadly situations involving autonomous cars, instead of worrying much about deciding who should live and who should die in such situations.
I get throwing in animals and the car should not avoid animals and kill people. Heck, we have people who do that and end up killing more people just because of their poor judgement.
People might be totally ok with their self driving car moving at 30-40km/h if it meant they could sit on their laptop and get stuff done on the way.
A bus with 40 passengers crashed because the driver wanted to avoid a raccoon crossing the road. I don't want my family on that bus, and will pay gladly for something better if I have to. The market will offer me that better option. If it has a customizable setting of "how many strangers to kill, before we kill your family first?" I will set it to "all of them." as I expect others to do so too.