USGS Announces Largest Continuous Oil Assessment in Texas and New Mexico
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The USSR collapsed as it did due to the dramatic oil price drop caused by Paul Vocker's strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s. Oil is priced in dollars, so if you considerably increase the value of the dollar, you'll sink the price of oil, which will hammer most foreign oil producers. The dollar index went from ~80 to ~160, from roughly 1980 to 1986, by far the greatest dollar move in modern history. Oil moved inversely to the dollar gains. The USSR economy was heavily dependent on the price of oil staying as high as it was in the 1970s (oil went from ~$20 to $100+, levels it had never remotely seen before). Having gotten used to the price of oil being so high throughout the 1970s, their already weak system was unable to absorb the outsized shock of oil plunging from $100+ to $30 during ~1980-1988.
In the 1950s the USSR barely had an oil economy at all. From 1960 to 1980 (they passed the US in oil production around 1975-76), their oil output had climbed by about seven fold, making them very dependent on that resource.
Had oil remained high, the USSR could have continued to spend as necessary to try to keep their system together. For an economy as dependent on oil as theirs was by 1980, removing that much revenue by tanking oil from $100 to $30, is a deadly wound on top of an already shaky foundation. While very plausibly their system would have failed regardless eventually, a high oil price would have likely bought them more time.
The dollar is what broke the USSR. It's also what threw Russia into a sudden and dramatic recession after Crimea and curtailed their pursuit of further territorial annexation (at least for a while). The US stopped QE and signaled the beginning of rate hikes, which sent the dollar soaring and took took oil from $105+ in June 2014 to under $28 in about 18 months (the global economy was growing fine and oil had been in oversupply for years; it was the dollar move that popped the market). Oil tanked immediately after the Russian Crimea events in July-August 2014.... The dollar is by far the greatest weapon in the US arsenal. If you want to restrain Russia, push the dollar high.
I recently saw a Werner Herzog feature-length interview documentary called "Meeting Gorbachev". In it Gorbachev describes in his own words how and why the USSR dissolves. The USSR was always an unequal political union with Russia as its command centre. The other republics were always jostling either for a more equal union and frequently nationalist sentiment overrode pan-Slavic sentiment. If the USSR had managed its internal economy better and if they weren't cut off from the outside world it could have survived indefinitely. In the end Gorbachev made a series of moves (perestroika and glasnost: anybody who lived through this period knows these terms and what they mean in practice) that brought about the impending dissolution. Garbachev would have been the leader of an independent leader of a now independent Russia but he was politically outflanked.
It is typical US arrogance to think that they have their hands always and every time directly on the levers that make and break nations and political entities. It is a prime example of the mentality of US exceptionalism. Many many factors interweave and interplay in every geopolitical landscape: internal politics, internal economics, internal resource allocation, external pressure, military strength, alliances, the list goes on.
Yes, oil/dollar moves may have had some impact. How much of an impact, that would be difficult to say. But it was in no way as impactful as you make it out to be and in now way as directly instrumental. And besides, when you look at the history of Federal Reserve policy you can see that US economic reasons (recession, interest rates) prompted Volcker's actions.
But isn't that only true if those countries are mostly buying US goods? If russia mainly buys stuff from europe and/or asia, and the US dollar goes up, it's true that absent other factors, oil prices will drop. It's also true that other countries' currencies will also drop, so as long as you're not buying from the US, the two will cancel each other out.
They tried the same playbook in 2014, but shale is too short cycle to be knocked out long term. Further they were able to secure help from Russia so they cut production afterwards.
It's undeniable that Reagan's spending on the Cold War caused the collapse of the USSR.
I am not sure that's desirable.
Many companies have formed their opinions on these plays already, often with superior data, but foreign companies, smaller companies, and firms not as focused on the region will benefit. The hope from the USGS side is that it will spur investment into the region.
The biggest issue? Cost of extraction/breakeven pricing, bar none.
Fwiw: I worked in the energy industry as a geologist for some years.
I also think that flying over this region (Permian basin / western Texas) on a clear day is --- as it is currently, without further extraction --- one of the best ways to understand the sheer scale of energy extraction required to support the American economy and lifestyle. If you haven't seen it, check out the satellite imagery of Pyote, TX on Google Maps or similar.
Direct link for anyone curious: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Pyote,+TX/@31.5739608,-103...
We need more nuclear.
For all the faults of Texas's oil fields, the state is also at the forefront of wind energy. But the reality is that we're still nowhere near being able to afford not drilling.
Total energy extracted over a couple of centuries is dramatically higher with wind. Oil is stored solar energy that eventually runs out; wind is realtime solar energy that never runs out.
See this photo: https://s.hdnux.com/photos/17/05/74/3956516/5/920x920.jpg
But hadn't made the inference that there would be still viable oil wells!
They can be built at any scale, from rooftop solar to utility-scale wind power, so they don't require the access to capital involved in building large thermal power plants.
The alternative to solar is what, generators in every building and delivering fuel? The efficiency of that sort of scheme must be terrible, and you're still relying on regular delivery of fuel.
Am I missing something?
Personal experience tells me that this sort of thing is possible. I stayed a few days a few years ago in a friend of a friend's house that relied solely on solar + batteries for power (apparently the cost of getting it hooked up to the grid made this setup far cheaper). Completely reliable. Power had to be rationed slightly more carefully than in grid connected places, but it wasn't a real impediment in any way. This was in Ontario, Canada. Which isn't one of the sunniest places in the world.
Firstly, relative costs will be region specific. Secondly, prices are always in a state of flux over the medium term. Thirdly, there are probably tax and subsidy implications. Fourthly, I suspect the rooftop solar is going to be a poor choice compared to utility-scale centralised solar and a grid so your specific arguments may be academic (I certainly hope so, those industrial solar towers look amazing vs. rooftop panels). Fifthly, the failure modes of the two systems are different making a comparison challenging.
For example, how reliable is a solar system in the face of three days of cloud cover? Vandalism? Do these panels actually last 20 years, given that manufacturing techniques are presumably changing and we haven't had 20 years to test them out? What are the actual fire risks posed by house-powering batteries?
Putting together a similar list for generators is easy but I know the answers to a lot of those questions because I'm quite familiar with fossil fuels, as we all are.
Anyone who says either is going to be more suitable for purpose without an opinion sourced from an engineer or a couple of case studies is just making stuff up. You can't first-principles this sort of thing, it is very context sensitive. Even case studies I mistrust, because solar can look very good if the grid is mismanaged by environmentalists to the point people opt-out.
Oil and refined petroleum products are not an economical source of power generation, which is why it isn't used anywhere in the developed world except at small scale where lots of fuel storage is required, like the Canadian Arctic. Coal and natural gas are much more appropriate, if they are available.
The biggest advantage to renewables, as I stated in my initial comment, is that they don't have to be transported. Arguments about resource adequacy (not enough sun, not enough water) are largely irrelevant because fossil fuel power is already rationed in developing off grid locations due to the massive cost of transport. Recall that developing countries do not have advanced transportation infrastructure nor a highly developed power grid to transit energy.
Finally, energy security is a major concern for all countries, especially those with limited ability to purchase US$ priced global commodities, and oil is an import in most of the world.
To suggest that, for instance, countries in sub Saharan Africa are better off spending their minimal foreign currency reserves importing diesel and trucking it across the desert on non existent roads rather than using abundant solar energy flies in the face of the facts.
Being a power systems engineer does not put you in any better position to discuss this problem than other people as this is not a powersystems problem.
We're talking about electricity use in the home: for lighting, small electronics, small appliances like a rice cooker or kettle (displacing wood), etc. These are real quality of life improvements: reducing time spent gathering wood, reducing smoke inhalation, reducing cooking time.
There is no "infrastructure" of these things, it's a completely stand alone system that requires little maintenance unlike a rotating machine.
I have been in the Himalaya where solar panels from China are transported on yaks over the border to Nepal where people buy them on put them on their homes for 50 or 100W of electricity, the first they've ever had. How would you propose these people to use oil? They are hundreds of km from a road driveable with a heavy truck, thousands of km from a pipeline.
Off-grid solar power is the MOST reliable form of power generation that exists. It requires no fuel, the amount of resource availability can be predicted with near-certainty without any technology, it has no moving parts, it doesn't require high-voltage equipment or transformers, and it can easily be broken into small pieces for transport on foot or pack animal.
That's why I brought up my profession, because you seem to misunderstand what is actually entailed in providing electricity. I've designed, built and run power plants of all types and I would never say that thermal is more reliable for developing countries than renewables.
We are talking about energy in general, not just electricity and we are talking about entire societies needing to be able to support their needs.
And off-grid solar power requires way more than you let on.
To begin with the resources and a manufacturing process that goes into it, the cost, the ability to provide enough energy and so on.
Furthermore and again. Solar is not even close to being able to deliver enough energy for our needs as a society neither on a national level and certainly not on a global level and no amount of off-grid solar power will solve that problem.
Cheap oil helps everyone, except for the everyone dies part.
There's no doubt that ameliorating climate change has a cost. Most of the plans around paying the cost have been around charging those already suffering the most in a, dare I say it, neoliberal economic regime. Those won't fly as the "yellow vests" demonstrate (literally and metaphorically).
The only way out has to be the rich biting the bullet and paying the costs themselves, because in this world, no one else has the money. I doubt this will happen. The last twenty years has been this not happening. But the alternatives are:
1 - Mass catastrophe, of extreme to surface-of-venus level
2 - Rich bite bullet and pay
3 - World revolution
Of course, 1 is most likely but I thought I'd put this out there.Further, global warming isn't hypothetical problem. The measures that experts and world-bodies are calling for to fight the problem aren't speculative but critically necessary - for those future generations that I somehow care about.
I've made the point already that the poor and the more impoverished nations can't pay the cost of global warming - this cost is going to have to come out of taxing the wealthy because there is no other source of resources here.
One might think that those with the greatest money and power would be most concerned with future generations - they're already guaranteed in the present so why not think about the future. Evidence doesn't point that way, unfortunately.
The current trend for present short-sighted policies to continue and even accelerate. Extreme global warming predictions are fortunately more speculative than immediate predictions. Sadly, we may get to discover how accurate those are.
Again id rather use ex fossile fuel which isnt going away to fight mother nature. It also rather use nuclear energy than any of the others as a base energyform but the so called environmentalists are fighting that and are poltically successful. The problem with this discussion is that you somehow have convinced yourself that you are fighting the good fight because you think you listen to what experts are saying, but you arent cause those experts you are listening to arent experts in what you think they are. Not sure why you think anyone said climate change is hypocritical, i certainly didnt. The fact is that we are not even close to finding alternatives to fossil fuel and the one we have are being politically fought.
The long and short of it is if we throw up our hands and say "let's flood every developing country with endless cheap oil, suppressing the critical development of greener energy sources" we are up shits creek even moreso than we are now.
You are right I am not a native speaker however I meant what I said.
Nothing false about us being even close to being able to replace fossil fuels and I would challenge you to provide a single piece of evidence that proves otherwise.
Wind and solar provides around 1% of the world energy needs even with improvements we would not get much further than 5%.
If you don't see the absurdity in environmentalist yelling the sky is falling because of co2 and then turn around to fight nuclear then we just live in two very different worlds.
Neither wind nor sun is close. And to illustrate that point this summer Denmark had a heat wave. Denmark who runs mostly on wind had to buy energy from Germany who then in torn had to use coal because 1) they are closing down their nuclear powerplants and 2) they could provide it with solar.
This is the reality, not the one you read about in the media who are mostly keeping hysteria to a max while completely ignorning the actual reality of energy.
I didn't say we shouldn't do anything, but the solution is NOT wind and solar.
The denial of fossil-fuel driven global warming is a position that harms humanity in multitude of ways. Shame on you.
If you don't do that there is no need to continue this conversation.
Of course a micro grid system like I'm talking about might also use some Dino fuels too.
[0] https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608114/clean-energy-price...
Then when it comes to weather. Oil works whether sun or wind. Oil is in most of the products around you. Oil is used for all sorts of motoric vehicles especially those that require a lot of muscle.
I am all for replacing those things with electric circuits and infrastructure but let's not claim that fossil fuel is so easily replaced. It's not.
I'm not sure anyone is arguing against using oil for plastics, lubrication and medicine productions. Your comment was about energy production, and while I accept that you can burn oil at night and when the wind isn't blowing, the existence of a national grid linking different parts of a country pretty much means that isn't an issue any more. The more we preserve oil for these essential purposes and avoid burning the stuff, the better.
Even if you insist that we need fossil fuel cover for days with no light or wind, that isn't an argument against building wind or solar power stations. It is an argument for keeping some mothballed gas power stations as a backup (not oil or coal though — gas is a lot cleaner and easier to start up at short notice).
In the UK we still burn some coal, but the renewable capacity we have built up has allowed us to turn off all the coal stations for periods during the Summer. And building more nukes will let us close those remaining ones down for good eventually.
Oil "won" because of its multifaceted abilities and thus could be embedded into the larger market whether nation-states and private businesses and for private usage.
I don't see anyone arguing against wind and solar. I am just saying that they are by no metrics able to cover the energy usage we have not even close. Currently, we are talking around 1% of global energy needs and the places that rely on it heavily need support both from oil, coal and nuclear as we saw this summer where Denmark needed the Germans to fire up their coal to support as there was no wind because of the amazing summer they had.
The point I am really making is that nuclear as a base clean form of energy is where we should be focusing our efforts and then use wind, solar, gas and oil as supporting in various situations. Unfortunately, the current political environment pushed by the environmentalist who claims to be against CO2 emissions yet are against nuclear, makes it an absurd and fruitless discussion.
Focusing all this effort and money on wind and solar when they will not be able to actually support our current or future energy needs is exactly the wrong way to go and is my primary issue with this whole discussion.
I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but we as a species are hurtling towards voluntary extinction because some people are just profiting too much from oil. Encouraging those most likely to face the consequences of global warming to burn more oil isn’t just insane, it’s downright evil.
I said that unless you have an actual alternative you have nothing of use to poor countries and their current citizens.
1 - https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-... 2 - https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2018/07/SR15...