Hacker News Reader

I'm sure I've read this same story for the past 5 or even 10 years.

I am certain that the chinese economy will face a recession one day and I am sure nobody in the media will know why or how. Maybe I'm alone in thinking these articles are such a waste of time. It tells us nothing.

View on HN

The field of economics certainly has lots of problems with replication and pseudoscience and pigeon superstition, but I'd like to point out that when large-scale events naturally take decades to play out it's a common effect for people to dismiss it, saying "oh they've been saying that for the past fifteen years, let's just move on already."

Sometimes things take that long. That kind of cognitive bias is making it difficult for our species to do any sort of proper long-term planning or even observation of slow problems.

No, it tells us that the Chinese economy is slowing, and by all measures it has been over the last 10 years.

And there really is not telling how much it is slowing. Especially since the Chinese government is suspected/known to provide misleading or blatantly false economic statistics for the country.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com