The popup mentioned in the article is a huge detractor from Medium, so I'm still waffling.
My point: it doesn't have to be an XOR choice.
I can get 3000+ views pretty easily on a blog I haven't put much work in. (More like 30,000 or 50,000 if the post connects with people)
Somebody pushed me to put a post on Medium where it got 20 views.
I hear from people who are excited that they post to Medium and they get 60 views -- they think that is a lot but I think they are ignorant about what is possible.
So far as I can tell, Medium has tried to create a brand for blog posts that are a little bit better an average but really the posts there are a little bit worse than average. It seems like a ghetto for clickbait headlines that would appeal to HN readers but when you read the articles they are at best thinly sliced salami which doesn't satisfy.
So don't give the "visibility argument" too much weight.