Uber exec in March: “we shouldn’t be hitting things every 15,000 miles”
arstechnica.com
arstechnica.com
This is tangential to your point, but in many (I'd guess most) parts of this country, that is not true. Unless you are under the influence, distracted driver's frequently kill others, and the cops don't press charges, chalking it up to "mistake".
No, it's more like one year or less[1]
> I would bet a lot of people hit "something" that often
That's quite a claim... just from personal experience, I'd wager this is a very wrong assumption. Majority of people go most of their lives, if not their entire lives without hitting "something". More serious incidents are even more rare.
My collision insurance is $270 a year, which I think is fairly reasonable for NY. I was involved in an accident a couple years ago where the corner of my car was smashed in a bit, pretty much the definition of a "fender bender". It cost about $3500 to fix, and if I had been at fault, I would have had a $1000 deductible. Repairs could have been $2500 if I was more lucky in exactly what was bent. So, that suggests my insurance company breaks even if I go about 5-10 years between at-fault accidents, or 75,000-150,000 miles. In the aggregate, I assume they do estimate risk pretty accurately, so I expect that 5-10 years is normal. Whenever people mention what they are paying for insurance, it usually seems to be higher than mine.
That's almost surely because of your $1000 deductible. That's very high... mine is $100 for just one reference point.
> So, that suggests my insurance company breaks even if I go about 5-10 years between at-fault accidents
That would be a "break even" point, but insurance companies attempt to turn a profit, so this suggests they expect majority of their customers to not have an event every 5-10 years, but on average a longer interval. They also account for non-traffic accidents, such as vandalism, broken window, theft, etc... none of which involve the driver being "at fault" or hitting something, which was the original assertion by the GP.
The non-collisions aren't relevant because I quoted the price of my collision premium only and not comprehensive or liability. That was on purpose, to be consistent with the topic of "hitting things" and with the sort of fender bender I was talking about.
Profit is not very large relative to premiums, so "breaking even" is a reasonable simplification. For example Progressive (not my insurer, just the 10-K I was able to find the quickest) made about 6%.
Not at fault accidents are some other companies "at fault" accidents, so counting them is double counting and would inflate my estimate.
All I'm saying is that, without false precision, evidence suggests people hit things every 5-10 years on average. Having an accident every year or never in a lifetime is not normal.
Besides, you basically just described most teenage/young adult or inexperienced drivers.
Wasn't it proven that their system recognized the pedestrian and continued driving? That means business logic killed a person. Somebody, somewhere within Uber made the calculation that more miles of uninterrupted data was more valuable to them than public safety. If a jury could be convinced that I, as an individual, recognized a person and chose to purposely continue driving to save myself time, that's manslaughter.
Seems more like murder, of either the depraved heart or plain intentional kind.
So the question here has to be whether the creator of the machine acted reasonably in designing the machine as they did.
[1] This may be a fiction, but one at the heart of how we see each other morally accountable agents, and one that underlies all legal systems.
I'm wary of this line of reasoning. No programmer outside of a terrorist organization will ever intentionally design a machine poorly. If a civil engineer -- specifically a Professional Engineer in the U.S. -- signs off on an unsafe bridge, and that bridge later collapses and kills someone, you can bet your arse they're getting sued and possibly charged with a crime. Unfortunately, we have no real equivalent to this in software engineering/programming -- the concept of a Professional Engineer doesn't exist, and so no one can be held accountable for faulty designs.
Yes, this would bring software development to a grinding halt. I for one don't necessarily consider that a bad thing. It doesn't have to be for every project too -- after all, you don't need a PE to sign off before you build a shed in your backyard. Likewise, a web browser or video game probably ain't gonna need that level of accountability. But for a self-driving car? If someone isn't willing to be held accountable for the software failing, I personally feel the system shouldn't be allowed on the road.
If a self-driving car hurts someone, the people who created and operated it can be hauled into court and forced to justify their decisions. Jurors will hear the testimony of experts in the relevant fields and then decide who should bear the burden of the injury.
It was only natural that the law-insulating aura that operating a vehicle provides in the US is extended to "self"-driving vehicles.
Grounding the fleet would have saved her life, but its arguable any other driver could have hit her and only applied the brakes for a short period of time, not enough to stop or slow to a less lethal speed before impact.
Sorry, but this is a human life we are talking about here.
Well perhaps those things should be illegal or made untenable. If you are publicizing risks in such a way that you are privately profiting from the public endangerment, you really don't have any moral or legal right to that money. Yet here we are again in a situation where people are killed, an executive says "we're sorry", and they continue pocketing the money.
I sure do. But I didn't when I was younger, growing up as a member of the lower class never exposed to business. That's why I find it so appalling. The concept of being able to run a business into the ground, maxing out debt, ignoring all reality while paying yourself a paycheck, then just walking away from it in bankruptcy and doing it again is just mind blowing to the blue collar, working class mentality. There's a whole class of people in our society who may or may not provide any benefit, but nevertheless get by making vast sums of money and working in prestigious high paying jobs who have no concept whatsoever of what it means to work for a living is like. The whole system is completely rigged against anyone who doesn't meet that threshold, and I'm increasingly convinced that this is the entire basis of capitalism.
I don't know how it would work, I guess they'd have to pay for more insurance.
But it seems that the way it is now, everyone has to pay for their ability to move fast and break things.
Just throwing ideas around, my economics knowledge is rudimentary at best.
If starting or joining a business venture meant putting everything you're worth on the line in the case that one employee is negligent, then no sane person would do it.
When limited liability is abused, such as when a corporations are undercapitalized[1], then courts can "pierce the corporate veil" and hold its owners personally liable for judgments against the company.
[1] Undercapitalization is when not enough assets are kept in the business to pay for its debts or reasonably expected liabilities.
The best way to kill someone in America is with your car. As long as you're not drunk and can afford a lawyer you're going to get a slap on the wrist.
http://freakonomics.com/podcast/the-perfect-crime-a-new-frea...
The law is written such that the corporations can do more with less accountability than people.
The law is enforced such that the corporations can do more with less accountability than people.
It seems like a very small difference at this point.
It just seems that corporations can commit crimes with far less disincentives (i.e. punishments) than people.
And that's exactly by design. Wealthy people own corporations and pay lobbists to stay above the law.
The larger the impact on the network in terms of either magnitude or volume of souls owned, the greater the ability to get away with actions that forward individual gain over general good.
Shareholders and directors of many corporations do get prosecuted.
The disincentive for the government is always going to be the effect of removing an important node from a network. Especially when the government and people gain from the stability of the network, even if certain negatives happen.
Not to say the way we treat corporations isn't really horrible. It is. Adam Smith would roll in his grave if he knew we were justifying our corporatocracy on his writings.
I'm simply pointing out that large nodes are always treated differently because it is logical to do so. If 3 people do something and you take them out, the economy keeps up exactly the same.
But take out the head of a company that owns... er... hires 100,000 souls? Or maybe the company only hires 300 souls, but they are developing nuclear bombs, or maybe developing a new gene editing tech, or green fuel? Then we have magnitude instead of volume. You got yourself political backlash if you remove these nodes.
proponents of the banking bailout used this same rationale, that allowing big banks to fail would lead to economic collapse, but that was only the rationale, not the reason for that course of action. bernanke, paulson & geithner were instead worried about blowback to their careers and economic futures, because it would be their friends in high places taking the hit.
if some large banks had failed, most certainly other economic actors would have swooped in to pick up the pieces and resume business. these were lucrative, real assets after all. the danger was not in economic collapse, but in how long the rebound would take, and more pointedly, the effect on bernanke and friends' careers.
we retard progress and innovation if we don't hold institutions accountable and allow them to fail. bankruptcy is the mechanism we use to allow instutions (and people) to bounce back quickly from failure, so they can use their learnings to try another tactic.
Your comment on the bailout is something I agree with. Using a non-intervention consideration to justify intervention... has nothing to do with the validity of the non-intervention consideration.
I find it a very odd tangent to use as a reply, since it sounds like a rebuttal but doesn't address the point. It does add to it, in a way, I guess.
What? American employees never get held accountable for white collar crime in startups
Every startup I was a part of in America was engaged in fraud, and the co-founders would laugh about it in front of employees
Corporate liability only carries civil penalties, even when the corporation's behavior is well over the line of a constructive mens rea. A harmed individual is left trying to prove an essentially novel case against a well-funded company - compared to the criminal system where most defendants are presumed guilty and eagerly prosecuted by the state.
If an individual modified their car to develop self-driving software, and the car hit and killed someone, that person would likely be sitting in jail for gross negligence. Uber's insurance carrier will pay out, push Uber to do some "internal reforms", and the actual people responsible for the poor culture won't be affected. That is the double standard people are bemoaning.
The vehicles create a firehose of data for the engineers/devs to deal with when there's large fleets. Things are ignored, and you have to dedicate more and more time to create good tools to filter through anomalies, incidents, and disengagements. With a smaller fleet, they'd see less problems come up but perhaps be able to diagnose and act on more of them.
This sort of corporate malfeasance, pursuit of product in the face of a clear and present danger to the public, is the sort of thing plaintiff attorneys use to drain sad corporations of all their capital to operate.
In other words, either that woman watching hulu behind the wheel is responsible, or perhaps some other employee, but a person is.
The corporation is a legal fiction that was not driving any car for the same reason the tooth fairy wasn't riding a pink unicorn next to it.
People, when working as employees, seem to really protest the idea of being held responsible for anything at all. This has lead to laws that state that employees are almost never responsible for their actions during work time (NOT legal advice, but generally speaking: if you aren't actively sabotaging your employer and it isn't a crime, your employer is responsible. Even if you are extremely negligent)
(Large) corporations tend to be a lot easier to extract money from, and a lot more likely to play fair (ie. actually pay what they're convicted to pay) compared to humans. So even if an employee commits a crime during work hours, the employer takes "civil responsibility" (that's the part of the law where the principle "money (amount to be determined) can take the place of ANY legal conviction"). And criminal responsibility ? Frankly, usually, nobody cares, and employers are generally happy to just fire whoever it was on the spot.
And yes, this is generally true everywhere in the justice system. If the court can trust that you will do whatever it deems necessary, you will get a lot more flexibility out of them. That doesn't mean you can just do anything (American courts especially have historically shown that there are circumstances where they will bankrupt a company if the facts are bad enough, to the point that it's a bit of joke)
Given the above, of course it wouldn't be reasonable to extract heavy punishments against corporations when employees drive a truck through a kindergarten because they fell asleep at the wheel.
This was a woman that was watching Hulu on her cell phone behind the wheel of a car who, we can be pretty sure, was very clearly told to be at any point ready to take over the driving. And, I mean, we've all seen the video of her during that accident ... WTF. I am wondering why you would demand the company be punished ?
This is then further made problematic because actual punishments on companies tend to cause large job losses, large tax base losses, and may cause other companies to leave, further exacerbating the problem. So there's political reasons as well to not go too far.
Right. If a group of people came together with a scheme that caused car accidents at the rate Uber does, they'd be held liable and they'd receive conspiracy charges.
Perhaps the same should happen to people who come up with such schemes behind the corporate veil.
Generally to get this sort of treatment it needs to be an employee that fucks up (meaning not the owner) and the company needs to guarantee it'll take civil responsibility (meaning pay up damages).
There's even a specific crime in the UK of Corporate Homicide.
It'd help if lawmakers backed up educated advocates, but the lawmakers are at this point bought by lobbies.
I vote with my wallet as well, but I don't think the majority of people even consider that.
Even if I'm not making a difference, at least I feel better about what I'm doing.
The average driver files a claim for collision once every 17.9 years [2].
That makes human drivers 16 times safer than Uber self-driving cars. This is concerning for people who think self-driving cars are right around the corner! Improved algorithms would need to avoid 94% of the collisions that self-driving cars currently get into in order to have the same failure rate as humans.
[1] https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm
[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuilder/2011/07/27/how-man...
Which isn't to say that self driving cars won't get there, just that the fact that it looks like we are almost there doesn't mean as much as you'd think; we still have the really hard bits in front of us.
While that's a difference large enough to make wide scale deployment of those cars irresponsible, it is not large enough to make one pessimist on self-driving cars existing soon. It's the kind of difference that often enough go away with a few years of engineering.
And I expect those to be the worse stats for all the self-driving car companies around, since others seem to be doing things in a less "move fast and break things" way.
That leaves open the question of how much damage that driver is at fault for on average.
I would theorize the opposite.