Global, U.S. Growth in Smartphone Growth Starts to Decline
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Essentially smartphones are entering the laptop stages of ubiquity and market saturation and making people wonder whats next. Smartphones are also losing their wow factor and just becoming another "commodity".
People are also finding less reason to replace their smartphones and replace cycles are getting longer.
The only double-digit growth is in the lower priced segments in developing nations and whats stopping Apple and other giants is their reluctance to dilute their premium branding.
That might actually be an understatement, there are many poor people with phones but no computer. Laptops, as hopeless of a market as they seem like they are, at least have some hope of moving down-market to the new ground Google is after with the Chromebook.
Sadly, it appears it didn't sell particularly well, thus no S9 Active.
Perhaps it didn't scale well so the costs were higher so it didn't sell as well.
Any technology that surpasses 50% penetration will never double again (in any number of months).
In an age when too many people stare at their phone in social situations, having a watch that handle calls, emails, text messaging, and simple apps - but, is not something you engage with for long periods of time. I usually don;t use my phone on weekends anymore. The Apple Watch keeps me connected but in a way that doesn’t pull at my attention.
I want a tiny phone to do sms and emails. The only thing I might miss is maps ... but that could even be done on a smaller phone if Google removed all that crap from the screen as we try to use their maps ...
If you live in a major city and go out drinking, you need your ride home late at night.
Living in Shanghai, my essential utilities were: wechat (replaces voice and SMS, though I couldn't really use voice anyway), kindle (replaces rideshare - read while you ride the subway), and pleco (a chinese-english dictionary app).
* a headphone jack
* removable battery
* 4 years of updates
* no installed software except Play Store
* no modifications to stock AOSP.
As you mentioned, I would install maps, mail and be done with it.
Moto doesn't modify AOSP very much and the one app it has provides some nice features (shake for flashlight being my favorite).
Edit: oops, battery isn't removable either. Can't remember the last time I saw a phone with that:(
The v1 droid, with the sliding keyboard. I would buy again in an instant if a comparable phone existed. It was _tiny_ too, and indestructible. Loved that phone.
Software updates not what you requested, but from a featureset perspective, other than "turning up the dials" I feel like i'm paying more for less with every upgrade, although that may be blamed in part by app/web bloat.
(This post is an expression of a broad similar gripe I have across much of tech, e.g. within chat software; we peaked with desktop gchat/pidgin >decade ago, the hell have we been doing since then. Discord is a great evolutionary branch but it doesn't fill the original niche)
Edit: As a sister post says, the E4 isn't a terrible alternative, but I find it to be bigger, more finniky, and less functional than the OG droid (currently using an E4). Good price point though.
https://hackaday.com/2017/05/11/tearing-down-the-boss-phone/
A phone that could be plugged into a usb C hub and instantly I have a running full Ubuntu desktop environment with all of my phone's data in the right places.
I know there's some partial attempts at this out there but I'm talking the full thing with Apple levels of quality and polish.
Imagine you want to go to a coffee shop, go sit somewhere else in your house, go to meeting someplace, get on a plane, go to an office etc.
There's no hubs, screens, keyboards etc. in these places so you'd be stuck with a phone. You're effectively much much less mobile than a laptop, only incrementally more than having a desktop at home.
Perhaps if hubs / screens became ubiquitous everywhere (maybe apple can do that) it would be useful.
I’d rather just wear those (inexistent) googles that create virtual screens anywhere I want.
And with help of rclone sync via S3 I have (98%) mirror of my laptop terminal environment (vim, git, npm, pip, gcloud, awscli etc.) and also nice GUI.
True not all gadgets use USB-C.
He’ll, it’d be worth it for 4g.
Won’t happen in the states though
That's it.
"The best camera is always the one you have with you."
I have far more expensive dedicated cameras but my iPhone is the one that I use the most frequently because it's _always_ with me. That matters and I'll always upgrade if the camera is significantly better in any way (especially in low-light, which is the area where there's a ton of room for improvement).
But I'm speaking as a person who values and has a dedicated interest in photography.
My mom really doesn't care as much because phone cameras have gotten really really good for most people's use-case.
There's no chance I'm getting anything but an iPhone, for those and a number of other reasons.
With that being said, there are significant improvements year over year in the camera hardware used across the industry regardless of manufacturer. There's also really innovative stuff going on in camera software and computational photography from both Google and Apple among others (shoutout to Halide Camera).
I'm not going to swap out my entire phone operating system and integrated workflow for a single software-feature like Night Sight (even though I think it's very cool).
I was just making a statement about how smartphone cameras (as a category) will continue to get more impressive through a combination of software and hardware. The step function improvements in the camera experience alone are enough for me to consider upgrading even if the rest of the experience is only marginally better. The point being that even as someone with more expensive cameras and lenses, the camera on a phone is still extraordinarily important to people like me because it's the camera we end up having with us all the time.
I get that you really want to turn this into an Apple vs Android thing, but I'm going to play that game with you.
If I were you I'd start planning how to move to the side where competition is actually a thing, before you're paying 4x or 5x for the same thing.
The value of the ecosystem working reliably together is worth the premium to me (in addition to things like reliable updates, good privacy models, and a focus on customer service, among other things).
Apple have an incredibly opinionated view of computing, for sure - but it's one that I prefer even at increased cost.
With that being said, I would like to keep the focus of this conversation on camera technology across the industry. Apple or no Apple, the cool stuff going on in computational photography excite me as a photographer.
Happened to me as I changed employer and had to hand back the fancy Pixel slab. I have been fine with the cracked screen 'burner' phone that I had bought in a hurry after I accidentally put my previous personal phone in the wash.
The 'burner' was only supposed to be a temporary purchase so I could take personal calls from not-so-well relatives. However I like having a not-so-special phone and not having the fear of dropping the posh all-singing-all-dancing Google device. Family channel messaging still works on it, it works fine as a phone and it even has nice touches like an SD card and replaceable battery. The smaller size is particularly good, the Google thing did not fit in my pocket too well.
The lack of decent camera is fine. It is actually what you do with a camera more than how good it is that matters the most. Plus there is that 'live for the moment' aspect of not having a posh camera.
The only downside is not having 'the big phone' for 'really important things'. I used to be able to do that, for a really important call, fancy photo or serious surfing, tell people 'hang on a minute, let me get my big phone for this...'. There was comedy value to it (but, like the best jokes, you would have had to have been there at the time).
Funny too that I never really needed any of those apps, games or whatever else you are supposed to have on these things. There is also value in being 'other' and not having a precious phone rectangle. I don't tease others for having to have their hand-rectangle crutch with them at all times. I am even okay with leaving my phone behind, if anyone calls then I call them back when I get in. Nothing is that important. There is no needless checking of the phone at every opportunity for me nowadays. I understand that new phones have apps to moderate that behaviour, I find that quite comical as I have no need for that imposed 'self control'.
As an outsider to hand-rectangle life I now observe others sharing a room, all of them engrossed in whatever it is that is shown on their respective hand-rectangles and not talking. If you want to do any of those things a hand-rectangle is for then a regular laptop (with tethering) is far better. I can't think of anything of consequence I have read or watched on hand-rectangles of old. Even maps is something I am dubious about, I am good for the zombie apocalypse when directions will need signs, landmarks, sun-angle and other clues. Camera is also a bit more nuanced. A dedicated camera with tripod mount is much better than even a Pixel phone when you want to do things like product shots. Out and about, the burner camera is fine for those things you message people with.
Testing websites for web-development is kind of even better with a burner phone. If it looks good on my phone then everything else is pretty covered (aside from Safari nuances).
It reminds me of the time I gave up my addiction to music, once I took the headphones off I discovered that the ambient soundtrack to my life was pretty good. I can honestly say I don't aspire to a new hand-rectangle but if I did wash my phone again and had to get a new phone then I would find today's burner phones pretty sweet compared to what I have now to go for the same. To think of the 'status anxiety' aspects of the past, where obviously I would need the deluxe version of a device with that extra RAM and storage space 'just in case'. I have grown past that feeble dependency.
After I saw the announcement for the XS I immediately bought a used iPhone SE. $160 for a 64GB model. Even if it only lasts me a year (it won't get iOS 13, which I may or may not care about) the value for money is astronomical compared to Apple's current offerings.
It seems highly unlikely that Apple will drop the 6S and SE with iOS 13.
Unless they just don’t want to support the 4 inch screen anymore.
I could get excited about smaller phones though...
There's nothing new here we've not seen many times before.
Outside of iPhones are there any phones on the market that get 5+ years of fast security updates?
Considering any functional smartphone should be able to net you at least $80-100, and the battery can be found for $5-6, not to mention the waste electronics/recycling aspect, it seems like a smart move if you have the time and will.
I did this with a Nexus 5, and broke a few clips on the back, but just enough to make the back easily removable but also stays on firmly during normal use. Now it's a regular replaceable battery phone.
In the process, I slashed my finger with the knife-like tiny screwdriver I was using, hurting quite a bit and drawing blood.
I don't consider this to be something I should obviously do with all my phones.
> If you bought a new iPhone 3G in 2008, and then a new iPhone 4 in 2010, you were buying markedly different machines. [...] If you bought an iPhone 6 in 2014 and then an iPhone 7 in 2016, that expected improvement was much harder to mark (except, perhaps for that fact the the iPhone 7 didn’t have a 3.5mm headphone jack).
Yeah? What if you shifted the years 2014/2016 to 2015/2017. Suddenly you're comparing an iPhone 6s to an iPhone X. Arguably an even bigger leap than iPhone 3G to iPhone 4.
Even the screen technology, taptic engine, Audio IC, Touch IC, and more are relatively the same — just a migration of location on the board.
The 6S screen design is even more similar to the X than I had originally thought when I started to tear into them.
Now the switch from 3G to 4? That was some brand new engineering techniques and internal chip sets.
What?
The 6s has a LCD and the X (2017) has a flexible OLED.
Couldn't be more different.
Batteries are always the bottleneck here. My Samsung Galaxy S6 is at a point where the battery lasts maybe an hour. But because the battery can't be replaced I need to buy a new phone.
I'd get a LG V20 (most recent phone with removable battery, over 2 years old) if not for the fact that I'm so used to that sharp AMOLED display screen that I can't go back to an LCD screen.
I guess I'll be reluctantly buying the Samsung Galaxy S9+, but I hope the battery isn't useless in 2-3 years forcing me to buy a new phone again like now.
I'm running LinageOS on it and it works flawlessly still, even though I'm now on my third battery.
I will never buy a >$500 device (be it smartphone or laptop) with a non-removable battery or easy path to replace it.
There's really no reason to buy any of the most "modern" phones unless you fancy getting ripped off big time.
The Nexus 6P from 2015 has an actual AMOLED screen from Samsung (https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3mzrl9/hi_im_hiroshi_...), as did the Nexus 6 before that.
Helpless posts decrying the lack of market options come up on on almost every thread that mention smartphones, but they really shouldn’t on a website for self-professed hackers.
[1] https://www.ifixit.com/Guide/Samsung+Galaxy+S6+Battery+Repla...
I've not personally had an issue with buying one but of course its as much luck as anything.
2nd Phone lasted 5 years. [3G, GPS, WiFi, Bluetooth, Radio, 5MP Camera]
3rd Phone 2 Years and counting. [4G, GPS, WiFi, Bluetooth, Camera + Front Camera]
It's a simple pattern. Every new phone buy should be a major Technology Upgrade, not just specification upgrade. So Minimum Requirement for my next phone will be [5G]. Hopefully within next 2 years. :)
Shame good-quality cellular small tablets are not really a thing any longer. Though, I suppose the new big phones are close to similar form factor. Just not quite as nice to read with...
There is a market for tablets but I see it as somewhat niche.
Real work gets done on a laptop, but there's a lot of space between "phone" and "real work". I do wish I could get an iPad Pro with a mouse and the ability to run VSCode though...
Getting Termux on Android was a complete game-changer, and took the device from hated useless toy to ... well, still-hated, but occasionally useful toy. But clearly the limitation is in apps and OS, not form-factor.
Oh well.
https://www.att.com/devicehowto/tutorial.html#!/stepbystep/i...
It reduces the urge to whip out my mobile device at every moment of mild boredom, and collaborative apps like ported board games shine.
The one downside is that I look pretty silly when taking photos.
I am glad you acknowledge that.
Although it is a little strange that we feel this way, what's actually silly about using a tablet to take photos?
I doubt the 2018 9.7” iPad is worse.
You need 'something with a keyboard' to do regular stuff.
Nobody needs a tablet.
In my arrangement, the tablet replaces a phone, ebook, paper notes, and a laptop. I primarily use the machine for messaging/email, maps, reading (books, websites), writing notes, and using terminals. I use desktop computers with many displays (and clouds/racks of servers) for anything "real work" like. A laptop doesn't cut it.
The bigger screen is significantly better than a phone (even a big one) for most of those things. Especially multi-tasking use cases where I want slack+a terminal visible at once. The bigger keyboard is far more comfortable for taking notes and using terminals.
I make/receive very few phone calls, and the ones I do use a headset and a Voip app. If you use the phone a lot for holding up to your head and talking to people a tablet works poorly. Most of my camera use is for things like scanning documents, qr codes, etc where the size/awkwardness is less an issue. I have a single purpose camera that I take on photo heavy trips like vacations. These are both trade offs that make sense to me but I don't think make sense for a lot of people.
I have a case with a hand strap that makes it safe and easy to use the tablet while standing/walking around, something that is hard to do with a laptop. I don't own or use a car so I tend to carry a messenger bag with me everywhere for general storage so adding the tablet to that is straight forward. It is easy to take the tablet in and out of the bag while standing if I need to look something up. Because I primarily use public transit I am free to actually use the screen of my device while in transit. Again, the more common use case where your car stores your stuff and you can't use your screen while in transit likely pushes the common case towards phone sized devices.
I pay $17.50 per month for Verizon cellular data with no contracts and no funny business. LTE data plans for tablets are priced assuming you have a smartphone already. Especially with today's $1000+ phones, a tablet + LTE plan can be drastically cheaper than a smartphone.
Finally, I like the friction of usage balance. It is much easier to grab the tablet (especially while standing/walking) than to deal with a laptop. It is a bit harder than pulling a phone out of your pocket. This leads me to avoid wasting time on my mobile device when with other people, in meetings, standing in line, etc, but makes it much easier to deploy computing power when it is necessary (standing in the data center and need to run one terminal command quickly).
The one thing I would change would be to add a watch that would help with turn by turn walking directions, basic message checking, and NFC payments. I look forward to the day that Apple Watch will pair with a tablet (or work with no tethered device).
How'd you manage to pull this witchcraft? This is 1/6th what I'm paying for Sprint.
The “catch” is that there are no voice minutes and you have to carry a tablet instead of a phone. This is apparently enough of a burden that people don’t take them up on it. If you can live with those constraints (it is definitely doable) then it is a fantastic price.
This is true. The first iPhone was a great product but 3G was a huge upgrade. Retina screens, LTE, the increase in screen sizes, OTA updates all well worth a yearly upgrade. Now the 6-8 are basically the same device with tweaks. Even the two versions of iPhone X don't make a significant case to upgrade unless you just upgrade because there’s a new phone released.
https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/11/16/the-end-o...
Also, Growth in Growth? Are we in derivative territory here, or is this a grammatical error?
Long-term it would destroy their brand but short term they could potentially see an uptick.
iOS 12 has a pretty long list of supported devices, and objectively improved performance on the specifically the oldest ones on that list.
Even worse, with most Android phones, you’re already starting out with slower processors than the iPhone of the same year.
> That is not a long term solution for most people.
I agree. Someone just needs to make an app to install roms from a repository source easy, so anyone can do it. Like how easy it used to be to jailbreak an iphone simply by just visiting a website and pressing a button.
I think it makes sense for them to cultivate the reputation for long-lasting given the new price points.
I'm slightly hopefully the 5s will get iOS 13, it was the first 64-bit phone and also has the secure enclave, I'm bet they could pull it off.
The difference has been mindblowing. We no longer wait 15 seconds for an app to open.
One of the tests I run when a customer brings an older iPhone in is to open the camera. We had a customer with an iPhone 6 where the camera would take 20-30 seconds to open. After we replaced her battery, it opened in a second or two.
Of course, Apple being Apple, they did a remarkably poor job of explaining all of this. It took them until people filed lawsuits to introduce their "battery health indicator", and even now people don't really understand that slow performance can often be fixed by a new battery.
Thanks for the insight!!!
I have an iphone 5s, and took a loooong time before I updated to iOS 11 from iOS 10.3. I learned the hard way with my iphone 4 not to blindly click update or your phone may be unusable. Anyway, I have been in my apartment since the beginning of the year. I make all sorts of phone calls no problem. Reception is good, usually 3-4 bars.
In June I updated my phone to iOS 11. Since then, a phone call in my apartment will last at best 5 minutes before I get a "Call Failed" screen. It's insane. I look at my phone and it has 4 bars. Literally as I press the "Dial" button, it instantly drops to 1-2 bars. Usually about a minute into the call it drops to 0 bars. Then the call drops. As soon as the "Call Failed" screen goes away, it's back up to 4 bars.
I feel like I'm going crazy. Has anyone else experienced this? I haven't been able to find any similar bug reports or experiences online...
edit: i meant iOS 11. I am hesitant to update to iOS 12 because of my experience with 11
Carriers have been reallocating spectrum from older standards to LTE, so it's not unlikely that carrier changes reduced your calling ability around the same time as you made software changes to your phone.
Double check if VoLTE is available for your phone, and try to get that enabled... Or stand closer to the window when you make calls.
https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/20/16800058/apple-iphone-sl...
This is an extreme example but it just shows they're not that worried about performance of older models. I don't think its sinister or anything. Its just not a priority.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/31/apple-q3-2018-services-reven...
https://www.recode.net/2017/5/3/15523268/apple-services-busi...