Elon Musk Tells Tesla Willing to Buy Idle GM Plants
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
https://www.jaguarusa.com/all-models/i-pace/index.html
How will Tesla be competitive with the Mercedes, BMW, Audi, VW, Porsche, Lexus, etc. electric cars coming out in the next few years? It may not be a good idea for Tesla to buy more plants. Maybe they should look for a buy out.
Mercedes and Porsche will enter Formula-E starting from the 2019-20 season as part of the marketing push for their electric vehicles:
http://www.fiaformulae.com/en/news/2018/may/mercedes-eq-form...
Mercedes will be in it to win it (as they have done in Formula 1) so they can claim they have the best electric car know-how.
The Jaguar does have advantages. The Matrix headlamps are awesome, it has a heads up display, the interior _is_ nicer, and IMO, it looks like the ant's pants!
However, the Tesla is faster (at least the Model S), and the P100D of either the X or S blows it out of the water. The Model S has a longer range, more space in the back, both for passengers and luggage. The X has _even more_ space, and the Tesla has a nicer screen, with better software. The adaptive cruise, and lane keeping features also work better IMO.
However the three big winning points for the Tesla: 1. Charge time: The Tesla can just charge faster, and it uses a lot less energy per km (or mile), so you end up needing to charge it less often, and when you do charge it, it can charge faster. 2. OTA software and map updates. This is just an awesome feature, particularly the map updates! They are just pushed to your car, no need to get it serviced to get the new maps, which also means that your maps tend to be more up to date. 3. This one is probably temporary, but still important for now: The Charging Network. The Tesla superchargers are in a lot more places than CCS-2 100kW chargers, which makes the Tesla more convenient for longer road trips.
If you _never_ do long trips, then 1 and 3 won't make any difference to you, since they both have enough energy for most people for day to day running, particularly if you have a charging pole at your work and/or home.
So, as I said, it's not clear cut which is better, since different needs could tip the above scales different ways. Which is just great IMO, since real competition is the only way forward.
I guess independent charging stations can have support for every car interface, but that still feels like a waste compared to a universal interface.
There are four standards, although only three per market. And, in essence, there are two surviving standards per market.
1. Tesla US connector 2. Tesla Everywhere else connectors (CCS with a mod to allow DC charging over it) 3. CHAdeMO (used to be the thing, but lost the war) 4. CCS-2 (European standard, what most new cars, except Tesla, support)
The rumour is that the EU Model 3 _will_ have a CCS-2 port, which would be great news, as that means essentially one standard in Europe. The S/X though have an older port which will only work with Tesla SuperChargers, the hope is that there will be a CCS-2 adapter made available, but that is only a hope, not even a rumour.
In the US, all Teslas have the "Tesla socket", and all/most other cars have CCS(-2).
A few manufactures still make CHAdeMO cars, but, IMO, they _will_ stop soon, since the infrastructure just isn't there to support them, so people will also soon stop buying them.
https://electrek.co/2018/11/14/tesla-model-3-ccs-2-plug-euro...
This isn't a rumour anymore btw, it's confirmed
That all depends on how successful the continued ramp-up of Model 3 is, and how fast they can ramp up Model Y.
Once the production line for those two are running smoothly, I'm sure they can continue to bring the price down, and I'm sure they'll stay ahead of the others in this regard. I think the heavy focus on automation was a mistake in the short term, but they'll still gain from it in the long term once they've de-automated the things that don't make sense. Trying for something hard like that always leaves you with some new innovative methods that actually work.
Once they have one truly mass-producing production line, they're safe as far as I'm concerned. Once the bring-up and capital costs of it starts to be written down, they can at least make a couple of model just as cost-effectively as other manufacturers.
Once the Model 3/Y is stable I'm sure they'll bring some of the development in battery cells/packs back to the S/X. Perhaps the motor as well. If they came out with a new model right now I'm sure it'd be cheaper and more profitable than the Jaguar I-Pace. But that's not their focus atm.
There's still some uncertainty for Tesla ahead, but I think they're over the worst of it. There's good reasons to be optimistic.
On VW specifically, "clean disel" was mind blowing too :-)
The car manufacturers know what they're doing and they're now investing heavily in electric:
https://www.businessinsider.com/mercedes-reveals-plans-to-do...
The first internal combustion engines were vastly simpler than the motor in your blender. There too, it was actually casting tech and materials science that really mattered. Ditto re batteries. I wish the big companies luck, and they have finally woken up - but across a vast range of business history giving a multiple year lead can easily be fatal to incumbents, no matter how wonderful they were at the last tech.
Investment isn't enough, I recommend Clayton Christensen's works, or just view some of his excellent Youtube videos (Innovator's Dilemma being his most famous book.)
And yet a low volume brand like Jaguar can produce a competitive electric car. What's going to happen when Mercedes releases multiple electric models? As the article says, in 2017 Mercedes sold 2.3 million cars. Tesla sold 101,000.
> they have finally woken up
It's less about them waking up and more about it finally being worth their time. They operate at a larger scale than Tesla, they have existing product lines, and why stop making what continues to sell?
A bigger motivation for them is that multiple countries have announced future bans on non-electric vehicles. They need to produce electrics to keep selling cars.
> across a vast range of business history giving a multiple year lead can easily be fatal to incumbents
I don't think so in this case. The incumbents have second mover advantage. Tesla has grown the early market for electric cars, they've set a benchmark, and they're now going to get out-produced by the larger manufacturers.
When everyone's selling electric cars, why am I buying a Tesla?
From an article published today: "The I-Pace SUV, launched this week..." "I-Pace starts at $119,000, about $35,000 below the Model X, Tesla’s SUV." "Test drives of I-Pace started this week..." https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/motoring/jaguar-makes-...
And within a few days: "While the I-Pace is an athletic prodigy, it doesn't do much to advance the EV state of the art. The sole battery pack, a 90.0-kWh unit, is EPA rated for 234 miles between charges. Tesla's Model X earns a 238-mile rating with a 75.0-kWh battery, and a Chevy Bolt covers that distance with just 60.0 kilowatt-hours. Perhaps the Jag's inefficiency is the price you pay for an EV that doesn't look like a suppository." https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2019-jaguar-i-pace-by-t...
https://electrek.co/2018/08/23/jaguar-e-type-zero-production...
https://www.techradar.com/news/jaguar-i-pace-the-future-now
Why shill for this firm? It's really great at hyping itself. Production is the test, it may happen, and Jaguar might even be able to compete at the very high end: but it's not out there competing now, and won't be trying sedan sales for years, if ever.
You only have a second-mover advantage if you have a better tech that can leapfrog the first tech; Google did, Watt did, Westinghouse did but this is the exception, not the rule.
You can buy a Jaguar I-Pace and have it delivered:
https://electrek.co/2018/10/17/jaguar-starts-i-pace-deliveri...
https://www.electrive.com/2018/10/01/jaguar-i-pace-delivered...
https://insideevs.com/in-norway-jaguar-i-pace-400-deliveries...
And the current and future competition is already hurting Tesla sales in Europe:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-11/jaguar-i-...
> Why shill for this firm?
I'm not shilling for anyone, son. I'm just objective.
You weren't objective enough to note the $100,000 price tag; there's no objective analysis that makes Jaguar EVs competitive with Tesla's model 3 today.
Nor are you objective enough to answer any of my other points, such as the inefficiency of Jaguar's car, contra your denial of my statement that "Tesla's motors are quite advanced." It would be civil not to just ignore points you can't answer.
It is clear that the market for EV's is going to explode, and so there will be plenty of room for Tesla plus various competitors. I think the real questions are which new companies will be in the new market, and which of the incumbents will make the transition and which will fail.
I will get downvoted for this "cynical" comment, and in six months or a year, everyone will have forgotten.
No need for that. It's not an unreasonable thought. If you get downvoted now it's probably because of this second part of the comment, or because the first part doesn't contribute much.
Personally I think it's impossible to say. You could've made the same prediction for the tweet Elon made about solving Australias power problems with that battery plant. It'd be totally reasonable to be skeptical, but see how it turned out.
Yes, very likely nothing will come of it as it was just an offhand comment.
Their revenues are increasing 50+% YoY and they became profitable while ramping up. Competitors are now publishing profit warnings and are quickly losing market shares in segments where EV are being produced in volume. The latest figures should be pretty scary: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/08/tesla-model-3-completel...
Some ICE manufacturers won't cross the EV chasm. They may even try to sell themselves to Tesla (too late I guess).