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Comment by LrnByTeach | Hacker News Reader

The rate at which battery prices are dropping and self-driving technology is being developed, VW plan about combustion engines is right.

Here is the most probable scenario by 2025:

2022 : electric self-driving on-demand FLEET car 1000 miles/month subscription for $350/months from Google, Uber, Lyft

2025: same car 1000 miles/month subscription for $250/month. Individual car ownership will reduce by at least 35% from 2018 ownership levels in developed countries.

by 2023, Google will supply Self-driving OS software to all FLEETs (except China Didi which develops it's own) and discontinue their own fleet running business.

GM, Toyota, VW, Renault forced to run own FLEETS to stay in business like Uber, DiDi

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I'll take the over for all of those dates.

You forgot Apple, since they are secretly working on their own car too - I heard ;)

That's a pretty overconfident estimate. There's no way there will be fleets of electric self-driving cars at 2022, it will be at least 2030 or later.

in 2022 start of fleet cars don't mean fleets should replace 30% of today's car ownership.

If you live in any city or suburb in USA today, electric bikes from Bird, Lime, Skip companies are left on the rode side waiting to be activated by mobile phone from anybody.

Same thing start with self-driving electric cars starting 2022 . It starts with 5% (in number) of today's cars in a given neighborhood. You just activate with mobile phone as we all do TODAY with these electric bikes/scooters in our neighborhood.

As you know google's Waymo just started these on-demand cars in Phoneix Arizona few weeks ago, any pre-registered users can hail this self-driving car from phone. There are keeping a safe driver just sitting idle as of today.

I am confident on January 1, 2020 ( in select USA cities) Google will have No safety human driver and cars will be parked in neighborhood just like these Bird, Lime scooters.

Again, taking the over on all dates.

The difference is that scooters cost a few hundred to buy, so they get paid off easily. A self-driving car is not cheap, usage costs would be far too expensive. I'm confident that your estimates will be far off.

What does FLEET stand for?

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