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Comment by aliston | Hacker News Reader

How can something "suggest" a recession is "unavoidable." If its a suggestion, then by definition it isn't unavoidable.

These articles are silly. You'll find them for every time the market sneezes.

October 2015, World Faces a Recession Next Year: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/13/citis-buiter-world-faces-rec...

June 2016, The Next Recession is Already Here: https://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/21/the-next-recession-is-alread...

There might be a recession next year, but the Fed might cut rates, Brexit might not happen, the EU might resume easing and the stock market might double in the next 5 years. Nobody knows.

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> How can something "suggest" a recession is "unavoidable." If its a suggestion, then by definition it isn't unavoidable.

Nonsense.

Say I have a coin that I suspect has heads on both sides. Instead of just checking the coin, I flip it ten times in a row and check the result -- ten heads. "Coin flips suggest 'heads' unavoidable."

The article is saying there is some situation in which a recession is unavoidable, and signs point to us being in that situation.

My point is that we're talking about a prediction regarding something for which there will always be a degree of uncertainty. The reason the author is "suggesting" a recession is unavoidable is because there's no such thing as an unavoidable recession, just as there is no such thing as an unavoidable heads coin flip.

"60 percent of the time it works every time"

I agree that the attempts at prediction are fairly silly, but this specific phrase is perfectly reasonable. “Suggest” talks about the state of our knowledge. “Unavoidable” talks about where we actually are.

"Evidence suggests that the heat death of the universe is unavoidable."

Exactly. Every market correct feels like it's going to be the big one as its happening, and most of them pass.. By the time people start to feel like maybe it's over, market levels are usually well off the bottom and so everybody who wanted to "wait on the sidelines" miss their chance..

suggest - cause one to think that (something) exists or is the case.

That suggestion could be wrong, yes. But they're saying that there are indicators that even if everything was done right we still go into a recession.

And regardless, to your other point, if you always predict the opposite of the status quo, you'll eventually be right. That guy holding the sign saying "The End is Near", one day, he'll be right too.

So, yes, these articles are silly.

While the last couple of days have been particularly painful for me in the market, CNBC, Bloomberg, and financial news networks are the biggest pusher of fear out there. Fear sells, and they peddle fear better than anybody.

It's hard to buy, or even not sell during the last couple of weeks, but I'll reiterate a quote by Warren Buffet:

"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."

Buffet himself is currently sitting on $111 bn [1].

[1]: https://www.businessinsider.de/warren-buffett-berkshire-hath...

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