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Comment by malvosenior | Hacker News Reader

If this is true, where is the best place to invest 10k-100k USD today?

If you are in the USA and have capital gains look for an opportunity zone investment. Incredible new upside of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017.

* defer your capital gains that you owe today * pay no capital gains on any returns if you comply with terms of opportunity zone investments (10 year holdup of capital requirement) * earns a 15% discount on your original capital gains taxes owed

Depends on your time horizon. If you have over 20 years before retiring the broad stock market is still likely going to outperform pretty much any other investment but it will be a bumpy ride.

Agreed. Time in the market beats time out of the market.

It would still be stupid to buy in at the top of the market if you assume it's going to tank - which is far more likely now.

Why would you invest just before a recession? Keep your cash and invest when the market is down.

So bonds, or money market funds

There are some indexes that go up on market volatility, as well as some "reverse" indexes

Those are meant for day-trading and now for long-term or even medium term investment.

You should always be investing because timing the market is a fools errand. The question is how much?

Isn't that timing too?

Or it is wise when you allocate 5/95 split to stock/bond but fool's errand when it is 0/100

Consistently invest an amount that you are comfortable with. It's called dollar cost averaging. I'd personally keep dry powder for when the market is far beyond the standard deviation of historical records. 2008 and 2018 would both be years this is true. Shorting though is only for the brave or stupid.

Personally, I put a certain amount in every quarter.

This is true, however, how does one know when the market is down? It's down now. But maybe it's falling much further and you're catching the falling knife? Maybe it starts a 5-year boom tomorrow and you've missed your chance?

I guess that extends the thought expressed in other comments that no one really knows when a recession is about to hit. If they did, it would be preventable.

A good investor knows his risk and his time horizons. Obviously, don't throw thousands into the stock market just before you're about to retire, even if the market looks to be down, if you don't have a very sizable nest egg. Additionally, a good investment should be a good investment even during the hard times -- for instance, I don't think Amazon is going anywhere for a while. Otherwise you're speculating, which is a valid form of investing, but you can't ignore the risk, i.e. you have to have cash and assets that will protect you if you lose all your money or the apocalypse happens.

It's complex. I'm not saying I'm a good investor, but I am trying to learn from the past!

The bond market, and international stock market are less correlated with US large cap stocks. Historically though you are still better off investing in the S&P 500 or similar, it is virtually impossible to know what the market will start falling and when to sell, or when it is at the bottom and to start buying again. Time in market beats timing the market.

I'm playing the cannabis market right now and i'm bleeding.

not just because of the slow growth of the canna industry, but the fear in Trumps trade wars and volatility in commodities is affecting every asset class.

Honestly, I would keep my hard cold cash. sit on it until the opportunity arises.

Maybe I am ignorant, but how does a trade war affect cannabis stocks? Is there some China connection I am missing?

If you're investing for the long term, why not just find a spot you're comfortable with on the way down and invest money in an index fund while the market is down? A recession is the perfect time to invest, isn't it?

If you have a good long term strategy you shouldn't be worried about timing the market. I invest in a few ETFs, 80/20 stock to bond ratio, a mix of domestic USA / international.

I probably won't make massive gains but in the long run I'll make ~5% steady.

I think if you value steady returns over wild swings you can do well with Vanguard ETFs - the low overhead offsets the les returns than day trading / active buying and selling

If it were my money, I’d be all in with stocks that have exposure to China trade war fears. When the current strife passes, they’ll rocket back up. I tend to buy the fear and sell the joy (if I sell at all.) But that’s just me.

if you think the market will go down you should short it...

Pretty much this. Market trends change how you invest, but they certainly don't prevent you from profiting either way. The last couple months have been particularly lucrative if you're shorting the market.

What would be the best way to do this? Is there an index fund or something that is based on shorts? Sorry for the lack of knowledge.

there's inverse ETF's. SPXS is a leveraged "bear fund" that gains value as the S&P500 decreases in value. SPXS is particular will move 3X the movement of the S&P500 so a loss of 1% in the market is a gain of 3% in SPXS.

SPXS has been an awful fund to hold since 2009.

Be careful with leveraged ETFs because of decay. They are really only good to hold short periods.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/1864191-what-you-need-to-kn...

I have n account with Charles Schwab and it's pretty straightforward to short a stock or etf: https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/what...

I'm pretty ignorant here, how do you short "the market"?

buy contracts for the ability to sell shares at a determined price later when the underlying share is actually worth less than what you are contractually allowed to sell it at.

If you don't know how to short, you should NOT be shorting. Shorting is incredibly risky with limited upside and unlimited downside.

You can do options, futures, short individual stocks, or even buy ETFs that take an inverse position.

As someone else said, if you have to ask this question it's something to be cautious about doing. But, you have to start somewhere so good luck.

I got a bunch of the same response, so I guess I didn't ask the question clearly.

I'm well aware of how a short works. I was asking what parent poster had in mind when they said "if you think the market's going down, short it". Short what? Specific stocks? That's not the same thing as shorting "the market". When people say "buy the market" or whatever they're usually talking index funds or etc.

So did he mean some kind of leveraged inverse VFINX? Or a baroquely complex derivates ETF that's just a ticking time bomb like those inverse VIX funds from earlier this year?

Anyway, sorry for the late reply.

In the spring of 2008 I bought gold. It worked quite fine.

investing should always be based on your age, not market conditions

over 60? lower risk...it may take longer for riskier assets to recover than you have to live

under 30? higher risk...the markets have always done well over a multi-decade timeframe

Into a piece of yellow metal.

Edit. More background on that:

In 2014, after years and years of my parents droning "think about buying a house," I finally decided to teach my parents a lesson, and show them just how bad their investment advice is.

So in the end, I lost around 53 thousand dollars in total from FX, fees, lawyers, drop of property value, and my ability to sleep well at night.

And in 2016, I got kicked out of Canada, as my employer was unable to secure me an LMIA after trying 3 times.

The only thing that prevented me from hitting the bottom was that I was also saving gold since I was 15, when I first bought few crumbs from semi-legal gold prospectors from China.

No idea why you are downvoted. Indisputably the safest investment for several millenia running.

During periods of fx doubt, even more so. This includes recessions and right after them

Inflation adjusted price of gold is down almost 50% from 1980:

https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-...

How many 1980 investments are at fifty percent or better today?

Since 1980, after adjusting for inflation Gold lost 50%, the S&P 500 is up 600%, or 1700% with reinvesting dividends in the S&P 500.

Completely beside the point. The question was safety, not potential profitability.

Also, please paint the full picture: How many percent of all 1980 investments retain halt their value or more today? My first guess would be: A small minority.

Looking at safety, investing in individual stocks or precious metals like gold is a poor choice. Index funds, or bonds have much less volatility.

To paint a full picture, how many people who invested in physical gold still have it, and how many had it stolen or lost it, or were scammed buying something other than real gold?

Gold is extremely volatile. You can lose 50% or more in the medium term if you buy when its at an all time high.

Depends what you mean by "safe".

Gold is considered a commodity investment, and shares the high volatility that is common in this class. (https://view.ingwb.com/sector-and-volatility-commodities)

Gold does have unique historic status as a currency or a backer of currency. I'm not in 100% agreement, but this does mean some see gold as a hedge against large-scale financial trouble.

However, that same historic status has made this asset in particular vulnerable to investment scams. (https://www.aarp.org/money/scams-fraud/info-2016/gold-coin-i...) This is one caution about this investment that you don't have to worry about as much compared to if you invest in, say, pork futures.

I would argue the "safest investment" is a diversified portfolio, personally.

Gold isn't as invere to the market as people think. In the last month it is only up 1%[1], while the market has tanked.

[1] https://yhoo.it/2Uptpoy

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