Would You Go to China on Business Now?
shift.newco.co
shift.newco.co
It's not only possible, but likely, that this arrest was the result of months of covert work put in by DOJ and State Department officials, and is the result of a legitimate investigation.
That said, I would not be terribly surprised if the Chinese felt forced to retaliate in some way.
Edit: I want to add that China is an amazing place everyone should visit at least once in their life and I hope the author does not let his fanatical political theories get in the way of what could be a life-expanding trip.
Well, having to buy a cheap chromebook I'd throw away/sell after the trip is a bit of a drag. Not being able to bring my mobile is a drag. Worrying that my public history of being pro-democracy, pro-free speech, and pro-Tor may result in harassment is a draq.
I had a lovely time when I went to Tokyo, without any visas, special electronics, or other considerations beyond the usual "don't leave your phone in the hotel room untattended" and "use a VPN" type opsec I always use traveling.
Why should I give my tourism dollars to a state that will at best tolerate and at worst actively harass me?
Unless she offered it in the United States why should she be extradited here? I can get behind waiting for her to leave China, who presumably would look the other way. But why can't the Canadians prosecute her?
This idea that people who did not enter the United States can be subjected to it's laws and shipped off to it's prisons (with their abysmal human rights record) is scary.
And I say this as someone who's extremely critical of China and thinks we're spending too much time worrying about dank russian memes while China buzzes our aircraft in the South China Sea and imprisons millions of Uyghurs.
1. Arbitrage gone. The China arb on price has largely closed (as it should have) and its not a viable business strategy anymore for the markets I serve.
2. Vendor disinterest. Again, as it should have, the domestic Chinese market has grown such that export business in my markets is more trouble than its worth to my Chinese vendors. Those who do export find it easier to trade with Russia, China, Pakistan, and SE Asia where the technical requirements are fewer.
3. Pollution. I found myself getting sicker each time I went. I'm sensitive to smog, smoke, etc. It just became too painful.
4. Principle. As I get older I have an increasing need to trade with partners who stand for something more than profit. I want to do business with people who believe in making the world a cleaner, safer, more verdant and just place. China isn't there yet. Mercantilism, tribalism and ambition remain the dominant philosophies. I wish for Chinese leadership in a better world in my lifetime, and I'm realistic about its likelihood.
5. Hostility. I maintain a few good personal relationships where I still trade effectively. Those aside, China's prosperity and domestic rhetoric has not resulted in a kinder and gentler approach to Westerners, particularly those of us in America. I see this situation further deteriorating in the coming months and years.
Don't underestimate number 5. It's very true. At least right now there are a few there who will still adhere to the niceties of just being courteous, but the hostility between the US and China is growing, and the number of people like that will decrease precipitously over time.
All that said, I think there are certain classes of Westerners who may find it easier than others in China in the future. I think the average Chinese person is starting to be more nuanced in their views. So maybe they see a big difference between a German guy and an American guy? I can't say, but I think that may be true??? Also, if you're high enough on the food chain, you're obviously a lot easier to tolerate. But that's a very small number of Americans. And, as always, the basketball players will likely always be able to make a go of it in China, it's kind of like Iran with the basketball guys.
But yeah, if you're a regular Joe-American, the tides are definitely shifting. But Captain Obvious could tell you that.
Got me curious. I don't think we in China have reached that level (hostile).
Many people in China is passive, meaning most of the time you better open up by yourself, otherwise people are likely to leave you alone.
Yes, that can makes people feel helpless sometimes, but that's not because people are hostile, no, it's because people are cautious and don't want any trouble. It's not cautious towards foreigners, it's cautious towards others. In China, strangers just don't exchange much. If you want to feel the same level of friendliness that you might have in America, you need become somebody that other people familiar with (So maybe they know how to treat you well without piss you off, or other way around).
I am not feeling the trade war much. It comes up in conversation— the Chinese business community is not happy and worried about the economy. Otherwise, it's business as usual.
I have zero worries that I'll be abducted on my next trip as retaliation. Granted— I'm a Swiss citizen and not a public company C-level. Generally, there's a lot of interactions between Chinese and Americans in my field, and I don't think that'll end because of the political difficulties. I'd be very worried if it did.
Americans were pretty much able to get out of Japan after December 7th. I believe the police arrived to talk and quarantine them all, but all the reporters I know made it out on their own easily within the next month or two.
Same thing in Germany. William Shirer was reporting from Berlin as an American up until early 1942.
The Japanese Embassy in the US was arrested en-masse and put into a hotel for the duration of the war. A fun game the State Department would play is encouraging them to file requests for better conditions, equalizing their treatment with the Germans (who got better treatment since they did not surprise attack), and then rebuking them in a face to face meeting for all their requests (violates saving face norm of Japanese society).
For example:
>...Americans were pretty much able to get out of Japan after December 7th.
Well... I didn't see any references specially on Japan itself, but when Japan took over Guam, they interned:
>...and 100 civilian men, including businessmen and the American Catholic priests, as well as the Spanish Catholic Bishop, Miguel Olano. According to official records nineteen of them died while they were prisoners. All of them suffered from malnutrition and exposure.
https://www.guampedia.com/wwii-prisoners-of-war-sent-to-japa...
>...Same thing in Germany. William Shirer was reporting from Berlin as an American up until early 1942.
According to wikipedia:
>...subsequently tipped off that the Gestapo was building an espionage case against him, which carried the death penalty. Shirer began making arrangements to leave Germany, which he did in December 1940.
I definitely wouldn't go if I were Tim Cook or Zuck or someone like that.
Will be interesting/scary to see what China does in response.
Image you ask people if they want to exercise more and eat less junk food.
That's mostly an indication this doesn't happen often enough. The world just might be a better place if we started actually jailing "scions of global capitalism" for the crimes they commit.
Also, is it only me, or is this rather close to a completely unhinged rant?
Canada agreed to the arrest because they have big problems in Vancouver. The city has become the playground of the party elite and local Chinese/Taiwanese are routinely intimidated.
> There won’t be a single senior US technology executive going to China for the next week or two, if not longer
Good. Not only is it an environmental disaster to travel to China frequently, continuously producing goods in a state that is the top contributor to global pollution is hardly a good thing. Not to mention the illiberalism.
Just because China is unquestionably more authoritarian doesn't mean that we don't have similar arrangements in America.
That's why your response sets up a false dichotomy; it pre-supposes that anyone not using China for cheap labor is necessarily looking for cheap labor somewhere else.