I compare every story with all stories (minus sponsored stuff) seen at that same moment, which are ranked higher, have a lower score, have the same or higher number of comments, and are older. All of these conditions must be met for it to "count". Bonus points if the story with a lower score but higher rank etc. is on page 1, but the story in question is not. Then I add all such instances, divide that by how often the story was seen in total, and that's the "fuckery level", basically.
For the stories I mentioned here's the "worst moments", first column is rank, second is age in minutes, third is score:
https://pastebin.com/r4vjFvVW
I'm trying to err on the side of caution where I can, eg. since a high number of commments can penalize a story IIRC, and I don't know what that number is, I only compare with stories that have less or same number of comments. One thing this can't account for is penalties for getting a lot of comments in a short amount of time (different from total number of comments), so I just ignore that. And instead of figuring out the actual age of a story, I take the "N minutes/hours/days ago" at face value. That also sometimes gets adjusted, here's an example of a very benign post:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18588069 https://i.imgur.com/PnOCfJP.png
The vertical line is the age jumping to a lower value than it had in the previous timestamp. If I had to guess, I would say this story was flagged by users, then the flags were removed by mods, and shortly after the age was lowered, because it was already too old so removing the flags didn't have much of an effect. Or maybe that's automatic, I have no idea.
Two more examples of adjusted age, though with these I recorded no instances of what I described initially (stories with lower score being higher and all that)
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18598179 https://i.imgur.com/ZuUUpQL.png
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18587956 https://i.imgur.com/CwX6mEQ.png
I have no conclusions at this point, but already the strong feeling that it'll be hard if not impossible to draw conclusions. One thing I want to try is to overlay the course of stories that "ran their course" (maybe haven't been seen in the top 10 pages for 3 days or so) into one image, but I need a whole lot more data for that to be useful. I ignore all stories that were already existing before I started this, so it's all still very sparse:
https://i.imgur.com/wvt0et0.png
Notice the occasional shifting up of things, I have no idea what that is yet. The black "lines" are sponsored stories (like $company is hiring $position etc.), i.e. no data for that spot.