To Help Prevent the Next Big Wildfire, Let the Forest Burn
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
For example, what if you had the surveillance coverage to detect a fire before it covers, say, even 1 acre, and if you could respond with a tanker of Phos-Chek (or whatever) within some number of minutes?
Aside from actually achieving the detection ability for alerting on a new fire, and having the equipment and personale distributed and on-call for rapid response, I am guessing the biggest challenge is “false positives” in the sense that you detect a real fire which is relatively tiny, but have no way to determine if it has the potential to develop into a catastrophic fire. In the long tail of forest fires there are perhaps 100,000 detectable fires, so that’s a lot of response.
This goes against precisely the thesis of TFA and perhaps the counter-argument is that strictly controlling fires will just allow fuel to pile up to the point where it is no longer controllable — like a dam holding back the floodwaters until it is finally topped.
The biggest problem I have with the “let it burn” argument is just the macro level stats. We have about the same number of fires, burning about 10x the acreage as they did in the past. We are already letting these fires, intentionally or not, burn a lot more acreage and the number of fires is roughly constant.
The best first-order defenses I’ve read about would be strict code for setbacks around houses to give a decent buffer between homes and forest, possibly some material requirements for roofs and siding, and generally making homes and communities more burn-proof. This obviously doesn’t help if there’s a raging inferno next door, but it shifts the curve.
Second, is better warning and alerting systems, and better evacuation management systems to get people prepared to leave, aware of when they absolutely must leave, and able to leave quickly in the moment. These systems are severely lacking for any natural disaster response, not just forest fires, and I think we are long past due a complete rethinking of how our “911” services actually operate.
Letting the fires burns clears out the fuel. IF we go in next year and light that area again there won't be much fuel, so the fire will burn much colder - humans and wildlife caught in that second fire can easily leap over the flames to relative safety (don't get me wrong, some will die in the attempt, but it isn't a death sentence like the larger fires we have now).
That second fire has an additional benefit: carbon sequestration. The big fires we have now turn all carbon to CO2. The smaller fires we could have won't burn hot enough for that and so unburnt carbon will fall to the ground.
Trump is apparently an insensitive moron for putting the blame on forest management, but I don't understand why the spotlight isn't already on them since things aren't improving year over year. PG&E power lines caused multiple fires last year as well. I wonder if raking and cleaning and doing things underneath power lines would have helped. That may be simplistic logic, but the logic behind recent policy seems even worse and this article makes it sound like they are still figuring out the basics. I am not sure why that is the case.
In California (this probably only applies to parts of California - it is a big state) the trees are high oil and very flammable. When there is a fire after a drought (which is common) it will be big and hot. The only way to deal with it is to not build near these forests and let them burn naturally.
In fact, looking at this study utilizing GIS data - it looks to me like the SE US actually contains some of the largest concentrations of fuel / fire risk:
https://eos.org/articles/assessing-u-s-fire-risks-using-soil...
Note that current concentration of fuel/fire risk is NOT what I was talking about. There are big problems all over the US because of mis-management. Different areas need different management.
70 years of "put every fire out" has resulted in forests with excess fuel. That coupled with dry spells and warmer temps = a powder keg instead of natural burns.
But even so, the region seems perfect for spontaneous combustion.
Forests don't spontaneous combust. I don't believe there was any forest fire proven to have started via spontaneous combustion.
Forests don't spontaneously combust. Sawdust does, manure does, compost piles do but there's isn't near enough fuel in a forest without human intervention to cause spontaneous combustion.
That and I find it odd you don't count the sun as a external heat source.
But beyond that there are enough sources indicating it can happen...
- https://sciencestruck.com/what-causes-forest-fires
- https://www.natural-hazards.ch/home/dealing-with-natural-haz...
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spontaneous_combustion
- https://www.dosomething.org/facts/11-facts-about-wildfires
It seems I could go on and on of people describing how it can happen and some how it has happens.
It ain't guaranteed, but take 1 billion of those drops, a mix of good conditions (no rain, just droplets from morning dew in otherwise dry place) and things will eventually happen naturally.
I've seen it caught on camera by BBC team in some african documentary, a single droplet around bird's nest causing significant fire.
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-lightning-strik...
The existence of adaptations to fire in the Californian ecology is good evidence for it being a significant factor (and if these were in response to human activity, then why not elsewhere?)
Is the issue truly that practices still havent changed?
You can't stop criminals just removing combustible and cleaning. They can and will provide their own combustible. A few gallons of gasoline is all that they need.
We would need something like the ink companies do since years. A way to put a fingerprint in the gasoline so, after a wildfire (or a home fire) some harmless chemical compound could remain in X concentration and point to the fuel station selling the combustible. Maybe a mix of several aditives in different concentrations and different times could provide enough variability to make a short code with station and month. Then you have the arsonists and their vehicles filmed in camera. Still a lot of people to check but, as many arsonists are recurrent, you can look for patterns. Could be silently implemented only for conflictive areas by the government and fine tune it to week or even day.
How do all of these policies matter of there is no more rain in California?
Apparently any and all weather pattern changes are “caused by climate change” whether that be drought or monsoon, heat or cold spells, increased or decreased hurricanes, etc.
And interestingly, no matter which direction the change is said to be occurring (e.g. more rain in the mid-west) it’s always predicted to lead to a catastrophic outcome.
A proper scientific theory is disprovable.
This is a big issue on forestry management across the entire United States (and probably elsewhere).
First off, if there is a fire burning on state land, federal land, BLM land, a national forest, a national park, etc. I'd call it a forest fire, it's just common parlance. To some that know better, I may use the term wildland fire. So, if it isn't a structure or vehicle fire, it's probably a forest fire. Specifically though, many of these fires are considered in the wildland–urban interface, that is where homes and wildlands meet or intermingle.
There is a problem happening and I'm not sure how to solve it. The amount of wildland-urban interface land keeps increasing. This land is much more difficult to defend against fire; structure protection is much harder than straight wildland fire management. We've aggressively fought all forest fires (see above), especially when there is a threat of homes being destroyed (again this is increasing due to the wildland-urban interface increasing). Forest fires are natural and should happen on a regular basis, when they do, they clear fuel from the ground. Note, some trees require this for seed release (serotinous cones), resprouting, and germination (fire activated seeds). When fires don't burn and the fuel loading increases (due to aggressive firefighting), a catastrophic fire can burn, one we can't easily put out. These fires burn so hot, they can jump into the tree canopy (crowning fire) and kill the tree, they can completely burn fire activated seeds and make them nonviable, and they typically burn much larger sections of land. This is all bad.
I'm really not sure how to deal with this. There are some steps homeowners in the wildland-urban interface (within 1/2-mile of the wildland) should do to protect their homes including defensible space, fire-resistant roofs and siding, enclosed eaves and vents, etc. These steps should be enforced through insurance company's policy (vastly reduced rates for "safer" homes, and no insurance or drastically higher for "unsafe" homes), keep in mind, these unsafe homes put firefighters at risk. Ideally we stop encroaching into the wildland, but I'm not sure how to stop that. But we do need to let forest fires burn more. We need to set more prescribed burns (controlled burns) We need to know that some will get out of control, but there shouldn't be any lawsuits for this, fighting fire is tough.
(I previously posted this on a CleanTechnica discussion)
I can't find the source I had heard, but it was one of the firefighters giving an interview and talking about forest management... Maybe I should have taken what he said with a hint of salt though ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Here is an amazing video that shows just how windy it was. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2208918639386879...
Or we should be honest about property ownership in the US: if I have to beg permission from someone calling themselves an "authority", I don't actually own it.
That's where we disagree, as I think that the greater societal good is to not let people build houses that might burn at a moment's notice because of forest fire (as was the case with the Paradise town in CA). This would be similar to how in my country you are not allowed to build an apartment building that doesn't respect some earthquake-resistance rules.
Less fuel = less intense fire = more likely to control.
As support for the theory, they had a map showing recent wild land fire activity in California vs. Mexico. In CA the fires were growing larger over the decades while in Mexico they were not.
A quick search for updated data didn't yield anything for me. I would like to see if the comparison still holds up.
That could just as easily be the result of climate change.
TL;DR version is tha by intentionally burning areas of bushland, Aboriginals decreased the intensity of fires thus reducing damage to plant and animal life which worked to their advantage of course.
I’ve personally witnessed this happening in North Western Australia where FSF is still practiced in a rather traditional way and the scrub land looked incredibly healthy It’s a place where I’ve never heard of out of control wildfires occurring.
Since witnessing the practice I’ve always found it really fascinating.
Besides which, sustainable fires (i.e. ones which don't, in the long run, substantially change forest coverage or makeup) are by definition carbon neutral.
Not when the rate of fires exceeds the rate of regrowth due to climate change.
We harvest from those forests currently — the problem is we harvest the big healthy trees because their wood is the most desirable. They're also the most resistant to burning.
The smaller, shade-tolerant trees that we leave behind are both less commercially valuable and more vulnerable to fire.