If you’re looking for something to invest in it’d be AgTech with a focus on these new farmers as users.
If you’re looking for something to invest in it’d be AgTech with a focus on these new farmers as users.
Because what I'm seeing is a pivot in exactly the other direction. Near urban centers you're seeing more 'specialty' farms like you spell out. These farms cater, almost exclusively, to the wealthy.
But out in the breadbasket, there has been an absolute crush of consolidation. Fewer, larger farms are producing the goods.
I argue that we're going to see (or rather are already seeing) the wal-martization of farming. Few, HUGE scale producers who work at a scale that is just so much larger than what we have now they can still turn a profit.
The one-off farms are great for those that can spend extra but they are not the ones feeding America right now.
Small scale production is going for specialty products, at higher prices, to specialty consumers. Think of a local vegetable farm that sells to farmer's markets, or a goat dairy that's making chevre to sell at specialty groceries in a 50 mile radius of their farm.
On the other hand, gigantic companies are increasingly controlling land used for industrial agriculture. Near me, a recently incorporated LLC (aka holding company for investors) just paid $171-million for 14,000 acres of irrigated farmland in Eastern Washington [1]. At that scale, there's simply no way that the traditional "small family farmer" can compete with industrial ag.
The few that have near me, are large families that essentially operate like a business. They've managed to hold on to their traditional farmland, and then expanded into what are essentially family-owned large-scale industrial ag operations. Good for them, but they're the strong minority.
[1] https://www.heraldnet.com/business/big-farm-deal-171m-for-14...
* Old huge farms employing fewer and fewer people, replacing more low-skill work with machines, and possibly driving prices on some crops down.
* New smaller farms, employing a small number of people, made profitable by the extensive use of the (semi-autonomous) machines, catering to specialty / niche markets, perishables, etc.
Huge mono-culture fields may, or may not, be split to smaller, more diverse fields, as agriculture machines become more advanced and smart. A machine that allows for techniques that let you spend less on pest control could be attractive from a purely economic POV.
Since the cost of labor is high, neither will drive agricultural employment up. They will likely still bring more variety, and more sustainability due to technology allowing nicer practices.
Permaculture, maybe? I hope you’re right.