I don't disagree with you, especially in that television advertising isn't going anywhere (though DVR is clearly reducing value) but that doesn't refute the fact that Facebook won't make as much money off of online advertising as Google.
Supposedly a picture is worth a thousand words. I wonder how many pictures a video is worth. Or how many 468x60 internet banners a full blown page in a magazine is.
I think the big disadvantage to internet advertising is it feels so cheap, even when it isn't. When you see an ad on ESPN, you know somebody spent a lot of money to put it there, and that lends credibility. When you see an ad on espn.com, you don't get that sense even if the company happened to spend more online than the guy on television.
I would love to know television's effective CPM rate versus Google's