Facebook is not going anywhere anytime soon, now that when even every grandma is using it. Kids don't use facebook now but they'll eventually will when the only point of contact for so many is to message on fb.
Assuming kids are the primary driver of content on fb, then with their absence should come a drop in value from checking into fb daily (this is occurring to me, today. I’m not sure if its due to more aggressive advertising or loss of usage, but my feed is like 50% ads atm, which I’m pretty sure wasn’t true five years ago).
If theres a lack of people posting content on fb, then you’ll naturally feel no incentive to post (the social media feedback loop, in reverse). Eventually, the feed becomes useless, and all thats left is the messenger app driving value to fb
And of course, in social media, the adults follow the kids. If the kids are running around on a different app, then those who wish to stay in contact will slowly move to it as well. And those who wish to stay in contact with both and so on.
Social media is all about feedback loops, and the young are the primary fuel for it. FB will struggle to survive in its current form if it doesn’t have the next generation.
And social media doesn’t have the kind of lock-in to claim a current population gaurantees a future population. You can have yik-yak and fb simultaneously. If half your audience is on yik-yak and the other on fb (eg friends on yak, family still on fb), you might cross-post. But dangerously for fb, you’re not going to cross-post to fb if yik-yak is your primary, and your audience has yik-yak as their primary too.
What used to be a place to hang out, share photos of last night's party, gossip, brag, etc.. is now a mind numbing scrolling experience.
It's becoming increasingly difficult to tell it apart from reddit.