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Comment by cryptoz | Hacker News Reader

Adobe makes money with tools, not with Flash. If Adobe makes good HTML5/JavaScript tools, and keeps making Photoshop, they'll be fine.

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It's still dangerous to them. They are the de-facto standard for Flash creation tools, but there is a much larger ecosystem for HTML5/Javascript tools. Even discounting existing HTML5/Javascript tool users who may or may not have a grudge against Adobe for Flash you still have to expect a significant amount of currently-Flash devs during the transition.

Indeed, I'm referring to the Flash tool, not the Flash runtime which is obviously free. But, the investment in getting the Flash runtime everywhere is what makes the platform valuable, and therefore what makes the tool worth using.

But, I agree with you that if they pivot they should be fine. To some extent they're also (smartly) re-purposing their existing tools for native mobile development: http://labs.adobe.com/technologies/packagerforiphone/

I'm skeptical that they'll be big in the "good HTML5/JavaScript tools" business based on what they have[n't] done with Dreamweaver, HomeSite, ColdFusion, etc. They just don't seem to have a lot of developer momentum there, IMHO.

But assuming Adobe makes money from the tools, doesn't this just open up the field for them. AND it relieves them of the cost of having to maintain and update the runtime. Now they can really just focus on the tooling. MS, Apple, Mozilla, and Google focus on the runtime (browser).

If seems like if Adobe plays their cards right, they end up making a lot more money, although they become a lot less prominent brand.

Sure, it could. But, if you're talking about competing over HTML/JavaScript-type tools, the market there is awfully crowded, and most of the competition is free.

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