Hacker News Reader

Comment by User23 | Hacker News Reader

We should remember that we are currently in an ice age[1]. If climatology can be reduced to an effective engineering practice that would be awesome, but we should remember that a frozen Earth will be far worse for most human beings than a hothouse Earth. In the worst case scenarios of Global Warming, the burdens and costs will be largely born by the developed world, both in terms of geographical changes such as sea level rise as well as absorbing migrants from more southerly regions. And the developed world is up to those challenges. On the other hand, when, not if, the reglaciation occurs, it will be devastating to the entire human population of the planet. It would be darkly comical if unintentional human warming were staving off the next freezing period, and we brought catastrophe on our planet by trying to fix it. Humility is called for.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quaternary_glaciation

View on HN

The worst case scenario is more like a "Clathrate gun" doomsday. While the worst case is improbable, I do believe the priors you use to evaluate the risk and cost of global warming might be a bit optimistic. And it seems contradictory to say that the brunt of costs will be paid by the developed world and then admit that the costs include the migrant from locations on Earth rendered uninhabitable. Lastly, you are assuming that the political climate will permit us to deal intelligently, compassionately, and fiscally efficiently with migrants. The current political climate seems to contradict that assumption.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

May as well worry about the solar wind blowing the atmosphere away. That's also possible after all.

It's surprising to me that in a technologically astute and optimistic forum like this one, there would be so much resistance to the idea that engineering solutions to heating would be easier than engineering solutions to cooling. Because anthropogenic or not, the climate is going to change, and keep changing, so either we adapt, we engineer it, or we die.

You missed my point. Of course it would be great to have a solution for every eventuality. However, the climate rapidly warming is the imminent danger. And it is the rate of change, not the final value, that is the most worrisome.

I didn't miss your point, and on the principle of charity I'm going to assume you didn't miss mine.

If we were to somehow go too far in the other direction, undoing all that CO2 removal wouldn't even be a challenge -- It'd be a return to the current status quo.

But how will we ever get the public to drive more SUV's and buy more disposable goods from the other side of the planet!?

your citation doesn't seem to back up your claim

We do live in an interglacial [1] period, which is a slightly warmer, shorter time in the midst of an ice age.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interglacial

For added reference, this is due to astronomical[1], atmospheric, and tectonic causes [2]. Obviously human beings have no control over astronomical or tectonic factors. The claim that the atmospheric factor can override both the astronomical and tectonic factors isn't implausible, but it should be understood that the atmosphere isn't the only or even the primary factor determining the climate.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles [2] https://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html

Woah woah woah, hold up. Geologist here. The effects of Milankovitch cyclicity and tectonics on climate are entirely mediated through the atmosphere.

The distinction between proximate and ultimate causes is deeply relevant for science and scientists.

For instance, when oceans change, such as el nino, la nina, reversals of enduring currents, or even new connections between seas due to tectonic transformations, that is properly a cause of climate change -- regardless of how much that change is, in fine, mediated by the atmosphere. Atmospheric changes are demonstrably not the only, nor the ultimate causes, of climate change.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com