This mentality is exactly what hprotagonist is talking about. All signs currently point to AGI being far away - at least several breakthroughs in currently unknown unknowns away, in fact.
If the most you can say about the likelihood of something happening is that, "there's no telling what can happen in the next ten years!", then the only informed forecast is that it won't happen. We can likewise say we don't know if an extinction level event will happen due to a meteor (that we couldn't detect for some reason) hitting us in the next decade.
Every time someone makes a sobering statement grounded in reality about artificial intelligence, another comment pops up which reduces to, "but who knows!" It doesn't mean anything.