When Sears Flourished, So Did Workers. At Amazon, It’s More Complicated
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
And now that Sears is bankrupt, their pension fund is going into default and passed to the government who will need to fulfill those obligations (thankfully the pension benefit guaranty is not funded with tax revenues).
Of course, I'm not blaming Sears retirees. They deserve their pensions as much as any other person. But the reality is that corporate America learned this lesson a while ago and Sears is just one of many examples.
Is not about pleasing shareholders and fucking up employees as this article claims. It's a problem of business viability and long-term expectations.
Wanna increase salaries and stock grants? Sure, do it. Two quarters later Wall Street will fuck you up because your new shiny compensation model just shaved the company revenue. And guess what, they will punish you at much larger magnitude than your declining revenue. So that 5% of lost revenue is going to cost you 20% or 30% of market value, and now all those stock grants are 30% less valuable. So your great initiative just put you in a negative spiral. And now your employees will be pissed, and the press will come and write an article claiming that your once frugal company is now a money firepit and that morale is low, completely forgetting their initial narrative on how you used to fuck over your employees.
None of those three things are true.
There's not going to be a breaking of vice-grips -- sudden and monumental actions -- because the banks would tank the economy just to get political leverage by threatening average Americans' asset values. Then they put the vice grips back on. If you want to do something about that, it's going to take a while.
FWIW capitalism has a lot of things wrong with it in the information age, but if you want to start blowing up major foundations, don't expect the interested parties to take it lying down and give you a fair fight.
The US is facing wealth inequality right now almost on par with the gilded age, which resulted in serious social upheaval. Other than the gilded age, and especially for a long period in the last century, wealth equality has much better then than it is now. We could go back to that at least, for starters. But ever since Reaganomics we've been seeing more and more wealth accumulating to those who already have it. Democrats get elected and aren't able to make headway against it (or don't try very hard), but when Republicans get elected they make it worse (look at the Bush and Trump tax cuts).
Who funds it then?
The article also draws attention to how workers benefited _in good times_ at Sears, not near the end. And this is where the comparison is most meaningful, where Amazon is more questionable.
IMO, the biggest mistake Sears ever made was NOT buying Home Depot when they had the chance.
Unfunded pension liabilities is how you have good times now and wreck the future.
There used to be a time when old people were poor. Now retirees are the economic engine.
There are two sides to that as well, however.
It's not just the few retirees that have a high pension which cause this... It's also the majority of young people not employed in tech getting increasingly shitty wages
In my opinion, 401k with low fee target date funds are probably better all around.
Employee wages should be significantly higher at companies with 401k's, of course they aren't.
Agreed.
But then I am surprised about the whole Wall Street para. People don't like surprises. So a company has to always set expectations correctly, to both employees as well as the markets. If a company is open how the initiative is going to affect revenues there wont be that huge loss of market value.
Still, many pension fund use very optimistic interest rates in their estimates.
This was before or after it had been stripped of assets?
This basically, is what people mean when they say "fuck the system". It's not about some particular greedy bosses or managers or even shareholders. It's that the whole economy is apparently now structured in a way that businesses don't seem to have a choice. (Or at least the managers believe they don't have a choice).
Sure they do. There are plenty of smart, prudent retirement plans for companies to offer to their employees that don't involve crippling liabilities down the road. Defined contribution pensions, tax free retirement accounts, dollar-for-dollar matching (up to a limit) etc.
Defined benefit pensions were a bad idea born of a "I'll be retired before then so let's kick the can down the road" mentality.
My current employer defaults employees to 10% and does dollar-for-dollar matching, but there's people who opt out because they want (possibly even need) all of their salary now, and thus they don't get any contributions in their plan. Yet these are precisely the people who would most need the contributions, because they're least likely to save up money in other vehicles!
More to the point is that defined benefits, in addition to their other issues, are mostly oriented to long-term employment with a single company. If you move around every 2 or 3 years, you probably wouldn't get much if anything out of traditional defined benefit plans.
Traditional defined benefit pensions are nice in some ways for workers in that they're predictable. I'll even get a small one myself. But, like employer provided healthcare insurance, they're really not a good match for most purposes today.
A well-executed, professionally administered, and properly run defined benefit pension system is by far superior to every other option on offer. It offers predictable costs for the employer, predictable benefits for the employer, and all of this will continue without the company for as long as the pensioner lives.
In practice, there's been a lot of subtlety to this. It's very easy to make changes with low-visibility long-term negative impacts and high-visibility short-term positive impacts. Public-sector pensions in the US have famously assumed unrealistically high discount rates, among other things, because that turns into small contributions in the short term which employees and unions love.
Decades down the line, everyone gets screwed. But the people who made the bad decisions are well beyond accountability at that point. Since they know this, everyone involved is incentivized to think short-term. Never mind the issues that arise when life expectencies increase well beyond what pension fund planners knew to work with.
The popular workaround for this is a 401k or similar. This isn't ideal by any means. It takes away the defined benefits and the predictability and certainty for pensioners! The main upside is that it also removes the kind of misaligned incentives that can encourage poor decision-making and provides more assurance that something will be there later in life.
You're completely right. Pensions, when done properly, are amazing for everyone! The alternatives kinda suck by comparison. But they're much better than the answer many pension funds have provided.
(Salaries, being compensation for a defined term as well as defined amount, can be terminated, and are also compared to current value provided. And aren't assumed to generally last until employee death.)
Let's debate what works without pretending everyone who disagrees with us has terrible motives. Defined benefit plans provided huge benefits to many workers who have not managed the switch to defined contribution plans well.[1] That does not mean that pensions are sustainable, or even that they are a good idea, but their proponents are not just con-men.
[0] https://www.thebalance.com/the-history-of-the-pension-plan-2...
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/l-it-the-401k-is-a-failure.h...
Otherwise eventually looters force liabilities onto taxpayers. Human liabilities, or material ones.
For capitalism to work it needs rules, transparency and infrastructure. Our choice is simple : Brazil or Norway.
Eddie Lampert whined extensively about how hard the pension problem was making things for him. In a sense that is trivially true - extensive liabilities make it harder to run a profitable company - but it wouldn't have been an issue if they had been properly funding their pension liability all-along.
In the U.K. Gordon Brown made it illegal to over-fund a pension, leading many companies to have to take “contribution holidays” when markets were buoyant. Surprise surprise, when markets went down not only were the plans underfunded, there was no spare cash to make up the shortage. One of the many blunders of the worst Chancellor in living memory.
Perhaps. Or it could be about competing in a marketplace where pleasing shareholders and fucking up employees makes you more competitive. The problem is not that Sears treated its employees well, rather that its competitors are allowed not to.
This, in a nutshell, is why capitalism is fundamentally incompatible with human flourishing. Because of the process you just described, the only possibility is an end state with a very small number of capital holders prospering and grinding the rest under their boot.
That's the main reason why Sears went this way.
My friends working at Amazon as tech workers are making money hand over fist right now. 100+ stocks each grant.
On the flipside, Amazon has a "projected total comp" which they keep you at, and if you're over projected, they don't give you more which is fucked. Google gives you 80k in stock and doesn't tie your future say to it.
So if previously they got $14 + 0.50 in shares their total comp ended up being $16. But they still got paid less than somebody who was paid $15 in cash straight up (who could have then purchased AMZN on the market).
Amazon isn't responsible for its own decisions?
If we expect responsibility for decisions to companies, then it's only fair if media outlets too are held responsible for the consequences of misapplying public pressure.
I think that analogy goes against your argument: The bear is a wild animal unable to make rational decisions. Amazon is an extremely powerful company lead by some of the leading businesspeople in the world. The difference between Amazon and the bear is exactly why Amazon is solely responsible for its decisions.
> misapplying
That'a s matter of opinion; IMHO, it was and is not at all misapplied.
However I think Amazon gave raises simply because they needed to recruit and retain. In my area Amazon runs "we're hiring...if you're alive you get a job, no resume no interview" constantly year round, so they clearly have a pressing need. At some point running the ads and constantly hiring is more expensive than just paying a more competitive rate.
Nobody asked for a "free lunch", those people already work very hard for what they get.
So, it's not much "no free lunch", but "I'll do a token gesture of giving you more while taking your money from elsewhere, because I'm a hypocrite greedy bastard".
White collar workers can absorb the risk in the case of a market downturn, but I'm not sure that blue collar workers can.
However then the prices of everything would go up for everyone, just like they are everywhere.
When the 'living wage' 15 USD/whatever minimums are passed don't the prices of everyday living just rise to meet that extra cash in the market?
Meanwhile everyone who was previously making a little above minimum wage, mostly the (lower/mid) middle class, get shafted, because they do not get raises.
But... but that's socialism! /s
Such corporation types exist - in Germany they're called "Genossenschaften". They're very limited in actual usage, though.
It’s happened before. But that was when Bush was president, and on the internet we’re supposed to pretend that he didn’t do anything good.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Stimulus_Act_of_200...
Around 3% make the federal minimum wage raising the minimum wage to say 10 would barely move the needle as far as the available money supply. If most people have the same amount of money then rational actors aren't going to raise the prices much.
On the other hand a person going from 7 dollars an hour to 10 will have 43% more money in their pocket.
It ought to be intuitively obvious that the benefit to the poor is not related in a linear fashion to prices.
If you were to graph an expected increase in price based on minimum wage they would expected to become close to proportal when an increase in minimum wage was also the average wage.
Giving $10 to a poor person will result in $10 more goods and services demand. Giving $10 to a very rich person will probably make 1/10th of a share change hands and have no effect on the real economy whatsoever.
Google "asset price bubble" and compare this to the general inflation.
"Growth" can represent too many things and is thus a great slippery beast that can be used to obscure helping the wider population. We continue to see economic "growth" but wage increases has been stagnant for decades. Owners need fewer workers to amass revenue due to changes in the type economy as well as automation. You can grow a business without benefiting as many people as you used to. Look at how many people Bell Labs had working for it when it was in it's heyday vs how many people work for Google now.
Both have the potential to increase economic activity, it’s true, but that’s about all they share, from a moral perspective.
Maybe compare the salespeople at Sears with account managers or some similar position at Amazon?
And this statement doesn’t invoke a lot of confidence for me. The article talks about profit-sharing for salespeople, then this quote says “most” retired with a “good” pension. So there were some that didn’t retire with a good pension? Who were they?
And then the quote ends with “most” are “comfortable”. Comfortable is quite different than the prior part about profit-sharing and retiring with the equivalent of a million dollars today.
That quote is just so exceedingly vague it doesn’t answer the question that The NY Times itself poses.
HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18276937
It's not that he is Scrooge McDuck and all his money is in cash.
Workers are drones to be squeezed for all they have and then discarded.
They're enot Amazon's main employees, developers are.
The warehouse staff will be mostly replaced by machines in the next 5-10 years.
* Largest number of people?
* Largest share of total salary?
* Most 'important'?
--
I think for a long time they are going to have a larger number of blue collar workers than white collar. In in an automated future - who will look after and maintain the robots? Don't forget that they now also own Whole Foods that currently are 'people' heavy.
Quote: While Amazon employees at its Seattle headquarters make an average salary of more than $110,000, according to Glassdoor data cited by the Seattle Times, the paper reported Thursday that the company’s median employee earned just $28,446 last year. That’s because the vast majority of Amazon’s 566,000 employees are not white-collar workers in Seattle but blue-collar workers toiling in the company’s 140 “fulfillment centers” across the country https://splinternews.com/a-staggering-number-of-amazons-empl...
According to [0] (page 30), Amazon's median compensation was $28,446. Where's your justification that either "main employees" are way less than half of Amazon's total employees or $30K/year is a normal developer salary.
[0] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000119312518...
I think it's because the tech industry is positively lousy with deluded persons who see themselves as embryonic billionaires. When you believe your asshole sprays gold coins every time you update a git repo, you tend to overlook that production is arranged under capitalism to have the ownership class expropriate the majority of the value that workers create.
These days the NYT is doing some very biased reporting.
If you read the NYT it is at the very least staunchly moderate on capitalism, if not (in my opinion) a doggedly fierce advocate for it, especially at a time when much of its readership is pushing to the economic left.
These moves kind of smell of ideological possession to me.
Lets Occam's razor this shit. Is Amazon a megacorp with the ability to throw their weight around and have a large impact on the world? Or are they a little mom-and-pop operation that have wondered into the crosshairs of newsmen conspiring against them because Bozos is the owner of a rival paper? In an era where NYT would like nothing more than to stop the bleeding from papers to online, and migration from NYT to Wapo isn't even on their radar?
I think the Times is awful, venal, half tabloid, and generally doesn't go after the powerful enough, but I don't think they look at WaPo as 'rivals.' They're basically the same thing, owned by a different set of oligarchs.
Let's talk in 2106.
They build an empire that lasted over a century, and flourished.
Sears' downturn didn't come until two decades after they phased out worker-friendly policies like profit sharing, and their decline was based on poor strategic decisions, not the profit-sharing that had existed decades earlier.
In other words, being excellent to their employees worked out great for Sears.
The world changed, business stayed the same.
“Most of these people retired with a good pension,” said Jon White, who worked at Sears for 38 years, most recently as a manager in a store in Lithonia, Ga., before retiring in 2008. “Most of them are comfortable for the most part — cashiers, clerks, replenishers, all kinds of workers.”
I would assume that "replenishers" are directly analogous to current Amazon warehouse employees.
Hard work, navigating to the right projects, and managing both upwards and down... senior and junior people on my part... I feel a bit ripped off. I'm not sure I would have wanted to get promoted knowing where my comp now falls.
The thing I'm unhappy about is that my target comp isn't actually that much more than where it already was as an SDE 2.
Without going into specific numbers, what Amazon does is if the stock value goes up, you only reap the benefits insofar as your existing grants are worth more. That means if you're above the target comp they assigned you, then you get no additional stock.
My job role as an SDE 3 has changed. I have more responsibilities and the influence I built as an SDE 2 has solidified. It's not easy by any means.
I'm going to just a bit longer as there is some initial vest that's wrapping up early next year... and then I go somewhere else.
My total comp this year is upwards of $250k because of the stock appreciation, but basically I got shafted with the promo raise. My salary and total comp didn't increase. I'm just reaping a higher stock price of vested shares.
Edit In response to the article >A warehouse worker hired now at Amazon who stays until retirement would leave with a fraction of that.
A buddy of mine works at the NYT in a tech role. NYT isn't doing anything different than Amazon. It takes a lot of nerve to write these kinds of articles... Hypocrisy at its finest.
Only in our industry...
Just because the numbers are bigger, doesn't mean it is less deserving of being fair.
This attitude is why there's been so much pushback against tech in places like San Francisco and Seattle.
Why such a weird number? Because it takes leap years into account: 365.24 × 5/7 × 8
*edited a typo.
Parental? Maternal leave is also unpaid AFAIK.
Should you leave? Yeah, probably, but only because that's my general advise to most Amazon SDEs. Many (but certainly not all) of the teams there are not super fun to work for. Odds are you'd be happier at any given alternative. Maybe your team's great, but you seem pretty unsatisfied, so yeah, leave.
Should you leave because of the money? Probably not, no. You're at the bottom of a new pay grade. You'll probably be making more over the next couple of years, and if you're on track to Principal, whoo boy is there money there. On the other hand, they say a recent promotion is a great time to quit. Go interview with Facebook or whoever and see if they'll pay more for an Amazon SDE 3 than Amazon will. Who knows, maybe they'll even buy you your unvested shares.
(1) Find a way to make more money.
(2) Appeal to the sense of fairness to get sympathy from the community.
Sadly, according to US federal law (4 U.S.C. §§ 888), anyone who earned a total compensation in excess of 7 times national average individual median income, loses the right to option (2). Any attempt to exercise it will result in penalties such as heavy downvoting and ridicule on social media.
If not for these harsh legal restrictions, I would have offered you my very sincere sympathy and words of support.
The good news is that with your fast career progression at Amazon, and willingness to work hard, you will likely significantly increase your compensation when you enter the job market again.
As you found, that is not law.
By the way, I also happily accept gifts myself :)