> It may seem like a waste of money, but for people like you who have no 401(k) or savings account, it can look like an investment in a better future.
How is that advice helpful? A lottery ticket is not an investment in any way.
If you're very poor and stuck in a bad situation, there could 0.0% chance you ever become a millionaire through the normal mechanisms, maybe spending $1 a week on a lottery ticket raises that to 0.00000000001% and creates a bit more hope in your mind.
Again, I'd never advise anyone to buy a lottery ticket. But if it makes you hopeful, maybe it's a better treat for yourself than a chocolate bar.
Per capita lottery spend by state: Massachusetts @ $761/year. West Virginia @ $594/year. Georgia @ $391/year.
Is that per capital lottery spend just total sales divided by population? The more interesting statistic would be average spend by people who buy at least a ticket a month. I'm sure the $761/month is brought down by people who buy 0-5 tickets a year.
Reminder that 40% of Americans can't cover a $400 emergency expense[1].
[1] https://money.cnn.com/2018/05/22/pf/emergency-expenses-house...
However, I think that's the gross spend. If a lotto system has a lot of little prizes it could inflate those numbers quickly. You might not win the $1.6B, but if your tickets win $1 or $2 on a regular basis then your net outlay could be quite a bit less.
Effectively each ticket might only cost $0.25 instead of $1 because you get $0.75 back on average. On this chart it would look like you spent the full $1 each time because it doesn't include winnings.
(Of course the entities buying these tickets are not necessarily "Californians", just thought this was an interesting take on "per-Capita" investment in a different sort of lottery ticket. It is also funding amounts, rather than opportunity costs people "invest" in these companies by working for reduced or no salary in exchanged for equity - which is the "cost" of the lottery ticket people usually talk about on HN. I just found the resulting number in this exercise really interesting and thought I'd share.)
[1] https://tech.co/10-best-states-startup-funding-ranked-2017-0...
[2] https://www.google.com/search?q=california+population+2017&o...
The point is, that's actually how real people see the lottery. A big payout feels more likely than a $100k/yr job when you've been under the poverty line long enough.
Remember, the goal of this game isn't to see how efficiently you get to the end; it's to help you put yourself in the shoes of people actually in this position.
So no, it is not helpful advise. It is a teaching statement about why poor people continue to play the lottery.
Look, do you want false hope or not?
Hope is all some people can afford.
On the other hand, money is not the solution to all life's problems. What I would literally wish for my worst enemy: you win that Mega Millions drawing tonight.
Recommended listening from This American Life:
https://www.thisamericanlife.org/329/nice-work-if-you-can-ge...
He's talked with thousands of lottery winners, and the vast majority, he says, wish they'd never won.
That's why it says "it can look like" an investment in a better future. (Not "is" one.)