YC Top Companies List
blog.ycombinator.com
blog.ycombinator.com
S2011 10
W2012 10
S2012 9
S2014 7
W2013 7
S2013 6
W2016 6
W2015 6
S2016 5
W2014 5
S2010 4
S2015 4
W2011 4
S2009 3
W2008 2
W2007 2
W2017 2
S2006 2
W2009 1
W2018 1
W2010 1
S2008 1
S2005 1
S2007 1
The top three batches were consecutive starting from summer 2011 through summer of 2012. That period happens to also be when the seed and venture capital ecosystem started its recovery from the 2008 crisis [0].What I wonder is, which way does the arrow of causation point? Did the success of these companies lift the entire ecosystem? Or were macroeconomic factors the dominant driver of capital entering this market, and those three batches happened to benefit?
edit: There's another possibility here, which is that there are two curves that may have maximized for companies around that time period. The first is the batch size, which has increased from ~10 companies to ~100 over the years. And the other curve is that companies take something like 5-10 years to mature. Maybe it's just that the companies of that vintage are just old enough to be really valuable, and that there were enough companies in the batch to push them to the top of this ranking.
My money is on macro effects, though.
[0] https://medium.com/the-mission/state-of-seed-investing-in-20...
So you would want to apply another scaling curve for that.
2005 1b
2006 (none)
2007 11
2008 5
2009 50
2010 2
2011 (none)
2012 10
2013 6
2014 16
2015 1
2016 1
2017 1 S2005 1
S2006 2
S2007 1
W2007 2
S2008 1
W2008 2
S2009 3
W2009 1
S2010 4
W2010 1
S2011 10
W2011 4
S2012 9
W2012 10
S2013 6
W2013 7
S2014 7
W2014 5
S2015 4
W2015 6
S2016 5
W2016 6
W2017 2
W2018 1
Visualized: S2005 *
S2006 **
S2007 *
W2007 **
S2008 *
W2008 **
S2009 ***
W2009 *
S2010 ****
W2010 *
S2011 **********
W2011 ****
S2012 *********
W2012 **********
S2013 ******
W2013 *******
S2014 *******
W2014 *****
S2015 ****
W2015 ******
S2016 *****
W2016 ******
W2017 **
W2018 *
Edit: Fixed a bug in my output that showed S11 and W12 as 0 instead of 10. S2005 1
S2006 2
W2007 2
S2007 1
W2008 2
S2008 1
W2009 1
S2009 3
W2010 1
S2010 4
W2011 4
S2011 10
W2012 10
S2012 9
W2013 7
S2013 6
W2014 5
S2014 7
W2015 6
S2015 4
W2016 6
S2016 5
W2017 2
W2018 1
S2005 *
S2006 **
W2007 **
S2007 *
W2008 **
S2008 *
W2009 *
S2009 ***
W2010 *
S2010 ****
W2011 ****
S2011 **********
W2012 **********
S2012 *********
W2013 *******
S2013 ******
W2014 *****
S2014 *******
W2015 ******
S2015 ****
W2016 ******
S2016 *****
W2017 **
W2018 *I think that's basically it.
It takes a while to reach a 100M or 1B valuation, so you wouldn't expect to see many of the most recent YC companies on the list just yet. On the flip-side, YC batches were significantly smaller early on before ~2011.
I wouldn't read too much into this distribution.
Timing-wise the web2.0 and then smartphone waves as business disruptors have their trace on the numbers as well as the prolongation of the market boom with increased venture money and the network effect of YC alumni.
Risks include a market correction, post-smartphone bets, applicants more apt to 'gaming' the YC acceptance process.
I would like more numbers on competition (other accelerators), overall startup market, and the YC batch size.
Summer 11 (my batch) was the first to apply AFTER Start Fund (Yuri Milner and SVAngel) announced they'd give $150k to every YC company. This program may have attracted founders who wouldn't have done YC previously.
Now Paul and Jessica retired, so I expect Y-Combinator results of new batches to stagnate (in a similar way how Microsoft performance was stagnant with Steve Ballmer in a CEO role).
Afaik, YC is the only seed funder-startup accelerator in the world, among thousands of other ones, that has given birth to companies worth $1 billion ore more.
At least until three years ago, it hasn't passed funding on a single billion dollar company (1).
Also, rumours are that Coinbase is raising money at a valuation of $8 billion (2). This is the same valuation that the company supposedly gave itself when it acquired earn.com in april this year (3).
(1) https://twitter.com/rabois/status/634205368172814337 (2) https://www.businessinsider.com/coinbase-8-billion-company-f... (3) https://www.recode.net/2018/4/27/17287184/coinbase-earn-acqu...
Seedcamp (London) has backed 3 unicorns: Revolut [$1.7B], UiPath [$3B], and TransferWise [$1.6B], and that's just a venture firm I know off the top of my head. While these days they're closer to a first-round fund (with a similar economic deal to YC) than an accelerator, most of those were from back when they were operating in a proper accelerator model.
I suspect there are probably a few other accelerators around the world that have unicorns in their portfolio - you just don't hear about them because they're not local.
It also has invested in more than 1200 companies, more than any other seed investor that I'm aware of.
Suppose that applying to YC gives you a 1% chance of graduating, this would mean that just applying represents $10k of value!
Of course it doesn't work like this, you need to apply bayesian statistics. Of the great applications almost all get accepted and of the bad applications almost none do.
The _average_ Y Combinator company is worth ~100M [1]
The _median_ Y Combinator company, however, is worth closer to $0 (the majority of YC companies don't get to a Series A).
This just highlights how counter-intuitive power-law distributions are.
[1] Calculation:
Discard pre YC'17 companies for the purposes of this calculation, as these are still too early stage for meaningful analysis. Brex, Faire and Atrium are the only YC '17 or later on this list.
Numerator: The top 100 companies have a combined valuation of ~$110B, according to this list.
Denominator: There were 1,400 YC companies as of Summer '17 according to https://blog.ycombinator.com/yc-summer-2017-stats/. Removing S17 and W17 gives about 1,100 companies prior to '17
In the most successful class (AirBnB in W09), the majority of companies went to $0. In the most successful recent class (W14), the median startup raised a seed round but nothing else in four years.
1) Jobs created is not a "net new" job creation. I'm still waiting for someone to do research on how many jobs get displaced by tech based companies. I think tech based companies are amazing vehicles for wealth creation, but not so great for global job creation.
1a) I find it interesting that they still have a RFS for "one million jobs" https://www.ycombinator.com/rfs/#million given that their highest number of touted jobs is 4k max. For comparison, Amazon has 500k jobs. Maybe 50k or 100k is more of an admirable goal?
2) Interesting to see YC - in some ways admitting I guess - that technology itself is not a sector, but that technology is enabling certain sectors. I think this is the right way to look at it. Yet we still often refer to many of these companies simply as "tech companies".3) This really should be split between acquired and not acquired companies. For example, Cruise being valued at $14B after being bought by GM seems weird. Or Dropbox, who is now publicly traded and their value changes every second. YC will never do this, but I'd love to see realized vs unrealized gains.
I wish there was more data supporting the idea of making small, long-term businesses, but it really seems like the big money is all in going for unicorn status. Which is a shame, because I think this drives some of the problem behaviors you see in SV.
Just don't raise venture capital. You can seek capital, just not venture capital. Venture capital is a very specific style of investing and the model relies on outsized successes. It is a very small portion of the overall capital ecosystem that drives our economy. It is not the end-all be-all of capital allocation.
The mistake laypeople on HN make is thinking that's the only way to capitalize a business. It's not.
A bank is tricky; you put your own savings on the line, and most banks don't really care about your specific situation, just that you're a risky customer. I'd prefer not to use family and friends because that has the potential to destroy relationships. Angels are usually interested in large growth potential.
Where else do you look for capital?
Meanwhile, if I want to build something sustainable, even if I'm willing to give up a decent share of my company, and submit myself to oversight of how this money is spent and great terms for repayment or equity, I can't get anywhere. VCs aren't willing to consider a $XX MM market, only a $XXXX MM market. Even for a good team and a good idea, I've gotten nowhere. I'm totally willing to give up some double-digit percentage of a company, I'm just not willing to have to risk $100k if I want to start a company that requires $100k.
And you're saying you pitch decks to VCs that say the maximum value of the company can be double digit millions and then wonder why you aren't getting anywhere?
You're missing the point again. VCs can't consider an $XX MM market because if they did then they wouldn't be practicing Venture Capital. Again, it's a very specific type of investing which is seeking very specific type of risks and returns.
What you're saying is the equivalent of saying: "I have a basketball team and none of these football players want to join me". Yes they're athletes, and they might even make good basketball players...but they're football players for a reason - they want to play football.
If you're in the US (or able to get a visa to work here a few years – admittedly a much harder prospect recently than it should be) and have technical skills, it's not difficult to find a job that will allow you to save $100k in 2-3 years if you're willing to live very frugally. At that point, you'll have the freedom to bootstrap your own company without giving up any equity.
You also have the option to crowdfund in B2C and land a major contract to fund development of an aligned product to your own in B2B.
As others have said, don't expect much luck looking for a risk-free loan that let's you have your cake and eat it too unless it's from close friends or family.
If it's closer to the $10k range, start it yourself. If it's closer to the $100k range, you could try presenting to some local business organizations that offer favorable loans or apply for grants, but no logical VC is going to put out $100k for a $250k return.
https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk
For (3), Gitlab is at approx $1.1B.
(1) is pretty close to being true. Will be true with Uber's $120B valuation
(2) is already true according to the list. Stripe and Instacart alone are already worth > $27B in aggregate
(3) might actually be already true, or at least close to it. Gitlab is worth $1.1B, and there are a few other YC W15 companies that are already worth hundreds of millions and are on track to become unicorns: EquipmentShare, AtomWise, RazorPay, Qventus, GrubMarket, among others.
Bank of America has ~1/3 the valuation : employee ratio.
Allstate is worth ~1/4 as much while having more employees.
Also interesting that the top 2 (Airbnb and Stripe) were in the 2009 cohorts. From the depths of the recession to $50+ billion combined valuation.
Out of the 2000 or so startups that deserve some type of funding[1], the chance that you will pick a $1B unicorn is about 0.2%.
Additionally, the chance that you will choose the next Airbnb or Stripe is closer to 0.002%.
For comparison, you could turn $150,000 into $4,500,000 with about a 3% chance if you find a vegas table willing to service this bet size (which they have done in the past).
[1]a16z said this recently
Also, the numbers will necessarily look worse for a fund or accelerator like Y Combinator than for an individual angel. Y Combinator has to fund cohorts of companies, right? they can't just say one year, nope, I found nothing I want to invest in this year. But as an individual angel you can.
From the article, 19 / 1900 YC startups are above $1B, or 1% (not 0.2%). Many of the 1900 are young, so the fraction of any cohort that will eventually reach $1B is more than that.
The chance of having picked exactly AirBnB or Stripe from among YC startups is 2/1900, or 0.11% (not 0.002%). More companies out of that 1900 are likely to achieve similar valuations in the future.
The payoff ratio for angel investing is much higher than the 30:1 that Roulette pays. On the order of 1000:1 is typical ($10M cap safe - $20B IPO with 50% dilution on the way.)
A16Z said that there are 2000 startups worth funding every year. Side note, A16Z only talks to about 1000 of them due to focus areas and competitive overlap.
Based on the 19 unicorns that YC has unearthed over the past decade, we can really only say that roughly 2 unicorns are born every year, and 2 megaunicorns born every 5 or so years.
They payoff is immense for finding one, but the chance that you keep at least all 150k is probably worse than your roulette odds, not to mention time invested and emotional capital.
Do you think it is significantly easier to pick unicorns than I am describing? Because it seems very, very hard.
So hard, in fact, that YC has to pick 150 or so per year and hope that one or two hit 1000x to make up for the others.
https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies has a list.
https://github.com/JesseAldridge/yc_still_good
Here is the graph I'm talking about: https://github.com/JesseAldridge/yc_still_good/blob/master/r...
For example, if a company has a valuation of 5B and to reach that point raised 4B, its cap delta is 1B.
Not sure why only the total cap is the one publicized, probably are more newsworthy bigger vanity numbers than smaller sanity numbers.
Returns are very top heavy so as long as you are in some of the top ones they can be really good. SV Angel did Airbnb and FundersClub did Coinbase.
But past performance is not an indicator of future performance...
I'd rather see how many jobs they've eliminated, but that's probably hard to calculate.
Or maybe value per employee. The fewer employees, the higher the number.
-Lowest Carbon emitted -Diversity of workforce -Pay gap between lowest and highest -Open source commitment -etc
> The top 100 YC companies are listed by valuation (including the top 12 exits), as of October 16, 2018.
I find it quite interesting seeing several founder names repeated for a number of the Top 100 companies.
> In addition, we will continue to support the company in the priced equity round in which the safe converts, and subsequent financing rounds (priced equity rounds or bridge financing rounds) by participating in those rounds to approximately maintain our 7% ownership.
This has been the case since 2015 approximately [1]. This means YC's stake in many of these companies is in the order of 10s or even 100s of millions, since they keep their 7% through subsequent funding rounds. That's huge.
I always get a kick out of the 'created jobs' meme. It is always bandied about in such a positive way. As if you took people out of work and employed them.
The truth is you also need a number that reflect the amount of people that were put out of work or disadvantaged by a startup. And the people who worked for startups (to a lesser degree) that would have gotten a job somewhere else.
What is really sad for young people I think is this perception that the road is paved with gold for anyone in the startup business. Sure they know most don't succeed in the same way that they know it's hard to play major league sports or be a music or movie star. But I really don't know if they fully understand how much of a long shot it really is.
YC celebrating this is fine it's what I would do from a marketing and PR angle. But the truth is they are in the business of getting as many people involved in startups that they can because it benefits them greatly.
This is not sour grapes either. I make money off of all of these startups directly (in a pick axe kind of way). It has been great for sure but it also takes advantage of the hopes and dreams of a generation who think the only thing you can do is 'do a startup by going to an accelerator and raising angel and vc funds'. That is most certainly not the case.
But I think it's extremely misleading to talk about jobs, we are all here to destroy jobs and concentrate wealth, and some of us are doing worse than others at Uber, Lyft and co, where the value coming from the destruction goes to the VCs, and if they crash the value taken goes nowhere.