It really is night and day between a good dev and a bad dev.

The key factor that you're probably not thinking about is time. A good dev doesn't think faster or have blazing fingers that fly across the keyboard, a good dev is constantly setting him/herself up to shave time off of future tasks, and those investments are constantly paying dividends.

Those "bad" teams can definitely produce software that runs, but they do it 10x slower than a "good" team could.

What takes a bad team of four six months to make takes a good team of two only 5 or 6 weeks.

A more accurate comparison is that software devs are like general contractors. I’m referring to those contractors who have experience doing plumbing, drywall, framing, finish work, etc but learned where to sub out to be more efficient for both their profit and to save customers time and money. A bad contractor can make a remodel a complete nightmare.

I should note that I’m a software dev and a family member is a general contractor

I’d argue they’re more like electricians. All their work is hidden behind the drywall, and as long as the lamp turns on, nobody has any idea of the absolute mess of wire that was used to turn on the single lamp.

If you have great developers, there will be a single straight wire from the switch to the lamp.

The end result for the user is the same though, until the mess of wire eventually overheats and burns down your house.

The statistics I've seen say 60% of all software projects fail. My experience, anecdotal as it is, bears that out.

Projects that don't fail, usually have to be rescued from some crazy doomed plans fairly regularly.

You seem to have found a calmer, saner corner of the industry.

I think most people are not able to tell the difference between a great piece of software and an average one.

For example, the people at Apple who came with blocks and Grand Central Dispatch did an amazing job, but the difference between them and the average software developer is like 100x. A great software developer can write something that other developers can build on, which makes them more productive.

Conversely, the people who came up with Java, they figured out how to turn a great programmer into an average one, and make them want to quit computers altogether, but the below average programmers are now also average.

I respectfully disagree, having worked in both software and carpentry.

While I do feel that folks grossly underestimate the skills that the best carpenters acquire over time, the software ecosystem generally is unique is that it's vastly large and complex. By any measure (switch points, surface area, person-years, etc.), the software we've all built in the past 70-ish years is the most complex thing ever implemented by human-kind.

Long ago it became far too large for any one person to "master" to the same degree an excellent carpenter might master his or her skills.

And the market agrees with the point of view, and values the economic output of the "best" software developers (at scale, not just one data point) at a far greater multiple over the "ok" ones, relative to other skills and trades.

One may not like this analysis (and my associated statement), but it is the state of the world.