That isn't a "new" model with all of the uncertainty that goes along with it though. Rav4 and CR-V have established reputations, entrenched supply chains, etc... A better comparison would be brand new models, not refreshed old models.
Toyota sells 1/2 million Camrys a year. For Model 3 to reach that level, Tesla will have to produce 10,000 a week.
The stated goal of tesla is to make 10k of them a week, instead of the current 4-5k. I worry that will be too many, there can't be that much demand can there? At least there's a lot of demand at the moment.