Let's rephrase it. China and the US probably have very good guesses almost all of the time. So the Chinese government can probably provide a very small area to search for him, if they didn't apprehend him themselves.
The more capability superpowers build into digital tracking, the easier it is to leave that behind.
If I took a bag of cash, left all digital devices and credit / banking cards on my table, and walked out of my house, I find it incredibly hard to believe the US government could reliably track me if I wasn't already marked for surveillance.
China, I might pop up on a camera, but there are ways around that.
So yes, agreed if people are connected and behaving "normally." (I.e. buying things, showing their id, etc)
Public transit within a city? I don't think you get tracked for that.