Today Apple announced the death of the optical drive in its laptops
benmetcalfe.com
benmetcalfe.com
On a side note, this is further bad news for Sony and Blu-ray. The shift from physical to online video is happening much more quickly than most expected. Sony invested billions of dollars into Blu-ray to win the battle against HD DVD, anticipating at least a decade of future royalties. I am certain the expected returns on this investment will never be realized.
I don't think there's a decent way of getting 40 GB of movie onto an Air without plugging something in... and USB memory is still too costly in that range.
Blu-ray discs are 25-50GB, but they contain lots of stuff besides the movie (bonus material and other stuff). Dropping extra features, using newer codecs, and slightly decreasing encoding quality can pare a 720p movie down to 5-6GB. Over a 20Mbit connection, that's a 30-40 minute download. Definitely streamable.
In fact Apple, Netflix, and Amazon all do this already. They sacrifice some quality compared to blu-ray, but unlike blu-ray, you don't have to transport a physical disc to your home. Even though blu-ray is higher quality, you have to ship discs or travel to a store to get them. Video on demand is so much more convenient, and the quality is only going to get better as connection speeds and codecs improve.
Unless you're in Korea, 20Mbit connections are far from commonplace. And in many countries download caps are the norm, which would preclude watching more than a handful of movies a month.
International internet infrastructure has a long way to go before optical media is anywhere near irrelevant.
Blu-ray is far from dead. It is still the only universal way for users to watch high-quality hi-def video. Windows and Linux desktops/laptops will still have Blu-ray/DVD drives. PS3s and Blu-ray players will still be bought. There are vast back-catalogues of discs users will want to play.
The fractional market that Macbooks represent (and the even more fractional those with such bandwidth to be able to download and stream hi-def video with ease represents) is minimal. Sony won't even notice this. For those who want to watch Blu-ray videos, users will just have to fork-out for an external drive. And I'm sure Apple will price these fairly (not), and more than a few will be bought.
With Apple, the user always comes first.
A 1080p Blu-ray rip is usually around 10GB for a 2 hour movie. Streaming 10GB in 2 hours requires a connection speed of around 12Mbit/sec. 720p rips are 5-6GB, so they'd require 6-7Mbit/sec. Apple only offers 720p right now, so most consumer broadband connections should be able to stream their shows.
I in fact struggle to stream even low-quality YouTube videos without having to wait for it to buffer for a few minutes.
Low quality YouTube videos are 480x360, with bitrates around 900kbps (that's kilobits, not bytes). So there's probably an issue with your ISP or YouTube's CDN. Anyway, back on topic...
I'd bet against Blu-ray in the long run. Video on demand has quite a few advantages. It doesn't require the purchase of a new player or optical drive. It offers a shorter time from when you decide, "I want to watch this." to when you actually start watching it. If you don't have the bandwidth to stream a movie, you can still download it faster than it takes to ship the Blu-ray disc. Even if you run to a store and buy/rent the disc (let's say 20 minutes round trip), in that time you could have buffered 1.5GB over a 10Mbit connection. Blu-ray beats streaming when it comes to video quality, but connection speeds and codecs are only going to get better.
To be fair, streaming video to a TV also requires the purchase of a player (AppleTV, etc).
This was Apple's strategy well before the cloud, viz. deprecation of the floppy drive before most consumers even knew what the internet was.
When I buy a Blu-ray, I know it is something I want to watch on my HDTV with my surround sound going and with flawless quality. I probably want to watch it more than once in my lifetime. I bought a couple documentaries on Blu-ray before I even had a blu-ray player, becuase I knew someday they would be cheap and I'd want to have those films in high quality.
They're not exactly competiting. It is the difference between McDonalds and a real restaurent. Sometimes I'll stop in McDonalds for a snack, but if I want a steak I'm going somewhere that knows how to do it. That is streaming vs blu-ray for me.
You don't need an optical drive because of the App store, and you must use the App store (and iTunes) because there is no optical drive.
Simply brilliant.
Edit: Downvotes? Perhaps the tone makes it sound too much like a conspiracy which is not what I meant to convey. It's a logical move for Apple and their customers (even if they might not know it yet).
Sure downloading software was/is the inevitable future, getting rid of the optical drive just gives the average Joe the little push he needs to get with it quicker.
Edit: Truly confused about the downvotes (and upvotes for parent). Since when is anecdotal evidence a good supporting argument in a discussion on HN?
By the way, I can confirm that observation. Now we're at N=2.
from 2003, http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-110814573.html
Once the decision to purchase is made, 78 percent of the
participants said they wanted to use the product right
away and therefore choose to immediately download the
software. When purchasing CD-ROM versions, specifically,
46 percent requested delivery within a few days.
they don't mention sample size and perhaps have an agenda.What do you mean? You can still download and install whatever you want. The same distribution channels that have always been there are still there, and if you REALLY need it, you can attach and optical drive... just like how you can still attach a floppy drive if you need to.
These days, if someone doesn't have a fast internet connection, you can send them a DVD or a USB flash drive for a few dollars.
Perhaps future generations will see the digital revolution as a time of strictly furthering the bottom-line; a time when it became prohibitively expensive to print most data. Yet currently, we call this "being green."
How will future generations perceive this period in history?
So this is already an issue.
FWIW, I don't have any CDs (including cheap CD-Rs burnt over 12 years ago) that I can no longer read in any CD drive; some aren't readable by some drives, but they are readable by other drives. But I've since moved the small amount of data on them (and it is small, by today's measurements) to my file server, which is both RAIDZ and backed up remotely.
It definitely wasn't the most sensible DRM of all time. Even more annoying because of it's uselessness. I never had a problem with ordering additional downloads for MSAA software.
But MobileMe? An odd mixture of USB- and web-based syncing across devices? Come on, guys. You're not even trying.
Fill the space with battery.
No off-site backups?
It all comes down to evaluating the risk and value of loss verses the effort. Would I be upset if my house burned down and my safe didn't protect my HDD well enough that I list my family holiday photos to Disney World in 2003? Sure but it wouldn't be the end of the world. People still lose everything when their house burns down who do not store things digitally/offsite which is probably >99% of people in the real world. However if my house burns down and my safe fails I have all of my really important things in two off-site locations a fair distance apart. Is it perfect? No, but it is as close as I can be bothered to make the effort for. With services like Flickr and Picasa Web things like pictures and video are easier to "backup" online, Google Docs for important documents, etc. Archiving things via Gmail/Hotmail, etc. This gives me a way to store copies of those holiday pictures at Disneyworld (albeit in a lower quality than I have backed up) as well as share them with family more easily.
If booting off a USB stick becomes common-place, I would have less to worry about. I know it's possible, but in the machines I've had to do it on, it's definitely non-standard. In those instances I've felt like I was back in the days of DOS. The talk of DRM-ed USB sticks is also disconcerting; dealing with DRM while trying to revive a machine is not something I look forward to.
USB booting is pretty common in most modern bios's, however don't forget we're talking about Apple here, where they control the entire stack.
Booting off external drive on Mac (power on + option key) has been in place for many generations of their hardware. It's definitely patchy in Windows land, esp with net books.
In 2008, Apple removed optical drives from the MacBook Air. People concede this will extend to all their products.
The optical death will be faster than the floppy, that's for sure. I'm curious, what's next?
Just because I don't see how they could do it while still keeping it nice to type on. And of all companies, Apple seems likely to do so successfully if anyone is even capable of doing so.
And if it is possible, I want to see what the heck it would be, and who would see it coming? I mean, heck, they already went to the opposite of what people kept saying they needed on their mice / trackpads - now there's no button.
After that it's unclear.
The death of consumer-level computing where the user can actually get root? (Everything will be on a app store?)
LightPeak has the potential to replace USB, Firewire, Ethernet, and all kinds of digital A/V cables, but it can only economically replace all of them if it doesn't have to provide DC power. I really don't want Intel to screw up this opportunity by trying to make LightPeak provide power under some circumstances but not others (like USB and eSATA), or by charging silly licensing fees (like Apple did for Firewire), or by crippling the controller performance to save cost (like USB's lack of DMA or low-latency transfers).
You don't need the appstore even if you go driveless, you need an internet connection.
We're years away from this, but if a majority of computers don't have an optical drive to rip CDs then the average consumer loses this non-download path to digital music. That probably emboldens DRM advocates, helps Apple's music download business, and will effect countless other things that are hard/impossible to predict.
By the time Macs ship universally without optical drives, the idea of getting music off of a CD and onto your computer will be as backwards-seeming as getting video off of a VHS and onto a DVD. Sure, it's possible, and you might want to do it for things with sentimental value and out-of-print oldies, but in both cases it's way easier to just bring your old tapes (discs) to a media shop whose service include conversions, than it would be to find the equipment to do it on your own.
Hard drive capacity has so far outstripped the needs of a portable computer user I'm surprised it didn't happen earlier.
Also: this might make MacBoks not be such a good choice for running Ubuntu in the future.
Maybe it was to install OS X?