It's about expected necessary effort vs actual necessary effort. It's better to wrong that you needed more effort than be wrong that you needed less effort.
Thank you! I misread the quote and thought it talked about having a lower IQ than one thinks in both cases. This cleared everything up.
Don't think you're smarter than you are.
I don't know what the meaning is, but I'm pretty sure that's not it.
People with really high IQs get themselves into real trouble because they think they're capable of handling it. This makes me think of Long Term Capital Management and geohot with his self-driving cars.