The bottom line though is that any reasonable observer will expect the Model 3 to keep a sustained demand at its price point. People really do like them despite what critics say.
Based on? There's been no official release. If they stood at 400k, Musk would be shouting it from the rooftops.
Many reservations were expecting a $35k car (with a substantial rebate). Even Musk himself said the demand for $50k+ sedans is ~100k annually.
> Customer deposits decreased slightly compared to Q1 to $942 million. This does not reflect the incremental deposits we received once we opened the Model 3 configurator for orders in early Q3 2018. Deposits impact the P&L only once the vehicle gets delivered to a customer.[1]
$.94 billion in deposits, where deposits are $1000 for a model 3, $20,000 for a Semi, and $250,000 for a roadster. It's also up by $90 million from two quarters before. No matter how you slice it they have a crazy number of deposits. Musk also does bring it up fairly often, certainly every earnings call that I remember.
[1]: http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ec...