SEC settlement sends Tesla stock soaring | Hacker News Reader

SEC settlement sends Tesla stock soaring

arstechnica.com

36 pointsokket44 comments

Weird title. The title seems to suggest that the stock soars because of Musk's "naughty by nature" tweet. It soared because of the SEC agreement (as stated correctly in the article) and the impressive production numbers.

Somewhat ironically, the "impressive" production numbers are actually below what they were expecting for Q1. Being generous and assuming only a 12-week quarter, 51,000 cars is only 4250 cars/week, far below the 5000 they were expecting to hit back in January. The news is that they are finally able to maintain this sort of scale.

The unfortunate news is that despite the months of lead-in time to getting up to this scale, they never bothered to get a handle on the logistics of shipping out the completed product, and are now stuck with massive lots of undelivered Model 3s. Musk's "genius" plan to deal with this is to spend a few million dollars and few months to build a new fleet of trailers, rather than simply work with existing companies to ship existing products to existing customers within the next month.

At what time were they expect to be making 5000 cars/week in January?

They are between 50k and 55k, exactly according to the guidance from the last call. Yes, 1-2 years ago they were to optimistic about mass production of cars.

> Musk's "genius" plan to deal with this is to spend a few million dollars and few months to build a new fleet of trailers, rather than simply work with existing companies to ship existing products to existing customers within the next month.

Tesla is using a new type of sale and delivery system compared to pretty much all existing companies. That has advantages and disadvantages.

I'm not sure what you are referring to with 'existing companies', you don't just have to deliver. You have to deliver, do paperwork, show cars feature and give the costumer the opportunity to point out quality problems. What existing companies could possibly do that?

We will see in the longrun if location based are vehice based delivery is better.

They were projecting 50 to 55K Model 3, that's the very first line of their 2018 Q2 earning report.

Former SEC enforcement attorney John Reed Stark wrote about the complaint against Musk:

(...)

But here’s the rub. The SEC does not typically file SEC enforcement actions like the one against Musk. Indeed, a close reading of the SEC’s complaint against the celebrated billionaire finds a litany of glaring absences within the SEC’s allegations, including:

No alleged profits or other ill-gotten gain earned by Musk; No alleged scheme conducted by Musk; No alleged market manipulation orchestrated by Musk; No alleged pump and dump ploy executed by Musk; No alleged conspiracy between Musk and anyone else; No alleged evidence of scienter or intent by Musk; No alleged false filing or other false or inaccurate Tesla report to the SEC by Musk; No alleged violation of any sort of required SEC “quiet period” by Musk; and No concrete evidence of an alleged motive attested to Musk (though not required in SEC enforcement actions, motive is typically pled or implied in some way, shape or form).

(...)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/secmusktesla-settlement-dawni...

The SEC will file against you if it looks like you disrespect them. They do not have the budget to investigate much less enforce their purview across the entire market so the only stability we gain from them is based on their reputation.

Musk threatened that so they came down on him hard.

A lot of people don't realize that Microsoft actually had two antitrust agreements. The first in the early 90s was a slap on the wrist (so much so that most people don't even remember it). Gates even mocked it. That culminated in the late 90s antitrust that almost saw the company split apart.

I used to be a pretty big Musk supporter, but he's becoming increasingly juvenile. His tweets like this make me feel like I'm back in high school.

I feel the opposite: I love his attitude. Delivering results allows for leeway.

Disclaimer: TSLA investor

I think what he’s doing is reckless and his behaviour is really immature. A CEO is supposed to be doing the opposite of everything he has been doing for the last few weeks.

The latest tweet could just be interpreted as a normal person having a sense of humor. However, also taking into account the past year, I would say he's reckless and immature. From what I've seen, probably to the same extent as most tech people in SV/Bay Area.

The more I think about nerds/geeks/dorks and their cultural ethos, as it developed in decades past under the thumb of a pre-internet dominant "normie" culture, the less I'm surprised about excesses and abuses of power. In this, I'm talking very generally, not with regards to any particular social issue or political controversy. A group which overcomes social oppression then becomes ascendant, often experiences an efflorescence of group pride which others can also take as tacky.

“For over a thousand years Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of triumph, a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeteers, musicians and strange animals from conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments. The conquerors rode in a triumphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. Sometimes his children robed in white stood with him in the chariot or rode the trace horses. A slave stood behind the conqueror holding a golden crown and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting.” -- George S. Patton.

I'd say the same for a President. What a world we live in!

I don't particularly like Musk, and I understand why people are mad, but Musk doesn't owe them anything. Anybody who doesn't like it can sell their Tesla stock and walk away. Same goes with Tesla employees.

It's not like he just started doing stupid stuff like this a couple weeks ago.

Edit: It's also amusing to see so many people on HN pushing the, "think of the shareholders" line.

Wrong. Musk as an officer of TSLA, a publicly traded company, most explicitly has fiduciary responsibilities to those who hold the company's stock.

Right, but there's leeway in fiduciary responsibility.

Musk has a reputation for doing this type of thing (specifically the immature "naughty by nature" tweet), and running companies that way seems to work for him.

People looking to invest with a by-the-book CEO should go somewhere else because that's not Elon Musk.

From the book In Search of Stupidity: Over 20 Years of High-Tech Marketing Disasters by Merrill Chapman

In 1994, the U.S. government arrived at a fairly toothless settlement whose provisions wouldn't take effect until 1995. Microsoft agreed not to require hardware manufacturers to buy an OS license for every machine they made, regardless of whether the machine used Windows or DOS. This was a rather pointless restriction, as by the time the decree went into effect there wasn't much else left to buy. Microsoft also agreed not to integrate new features and capabilities into its products if they were intended to "crush" the competition. Presumably, a gentle mauling would have to be sufficient.

Gates, however, in an action that signaled he had finally started to grow too big for his britches, made a mistake at this point. Having maneuvered a dream deal out of the DOJ's lawyers, Gates proceeded to hurt their feelings by swaggering about telling everyone that nothing had changed and that Microsoft would continue with business as usual. It was stupid behavior. Microsoft is big and has a lot of money, but the U.S. government is bigger and has all the money. Soft words and a humble attitude would have been the smart move. The political appointees at the DOJ didn't pay much heed to Gates's mouthing off, but in the eyes of the department's career attorneys, Bill Gates was a marked man.

----------------------------

The lesson is that when you get a favorable settlement from a government enforcement agency, be humble about it.

I'm glad. Big middle finger to the shorts and the mass media who seems to love to post negative news on Tesla. Why didn't they include that the model 3 was the most popular sedan this quarter?

I personally put more money in Tesla on Friday and woke up to a nice surprise this morning.

I wonder how someone would have made out with a simple strategy like, Buy TSLA on bad news, and sell when the quote is at least 85% of price targets?

Worked great for me so far. Buy the dip, sell high. Rinse and repeat. Granted TSLA is the only stock I monitor daily, rest of my portfolio is long.

If you don't like shorts, don't go to the public, hat in hand, asking for investment money.

“Most popular sedan”

When it’s “most popular vehicle” then we have something to cheer about.

Most popular sedan is being the biggest fish in a small aquarium.

https://www.cbtnews.com/people-arent-buying-sedans-anymore/

The 3, admittedly has done reasonably well, but out of the total number of sedans sold, it’s still tiny. Out of total cars sold, it doesn’t even register as significant at all.

I am not knocking Tesla, but their competitive advantage is diminishing. Audi’s e-tron and all of the other electrics coming from big name producers are set to crush Tesla unless they figure out how to scale; not just production, but the parts and repair pipelines.

As far as the media posting negative news; has there been much news that hasn’t been negative? Musk picks a fight with the SEC, tweets like a 12 year old (remember the pedophile allegation?) and still it takes months to get a car. (And still no CarPlay support!)

They should focus on building cars and less on trying to play with the stock price. The best way for Musk to beat the shorts? Shut up and ship.

>Most popular sedan is being the biggest fish in a small aquarium

And it wasn't even that. It was the most popular _EV_ sedan, which is like being the biggest fish in the water pale my son plays with in the backyard.

Wrong, it was the best selling overall sedan in US by revenue, including gas cars.

Have a source for that? Bloomberg says it was the fifth[1] best selling sedan. Also, their numbers include Canada while other manufacturer's do not.

Wait... by _revenue_? Who cares about that? Now units sold isn't the benchmark? C'mon.

[1] https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-outsells-al...

Investors care about revenue.

>I'm glad. Big middle finger to the shorts

You realize he also hurts longs with this crap, right?

Indeed. I don't know where this strange desire of his to show off how big his wristwatch is has come from. Part of the stability of the public market is due to the good behavior of those who participate (such as it is - c.f. crypto for the counter-example). Musk's continued juvenile behavior is doing the investors of TSLA, whether long or short, no favors. The BOD needs to hold a come-to-Jesus meeting - if Musk holds too many shares for that to be effective, then the SEC needs to step up its game - or just let the "naughty" behavior and loss of investor confidence and lawsuits continue.

Why didn't they include that the model 3 was the most popular sedan this quarter?

Because it wasn't. For example, In July alone, Toyota sold 26,311 Camrys and 26,754 Corollas. In August , Toyota sold: 30,141 Camrys and 26,155 Corollas. This means, even if they sold no cars in September, both Toyota models sold more in Q3 than the Model 3.

The Model 3 was the best-selling EV sedan in Q3, but it should have been, given that it doesn't yet have any real competition.

Depends on how you calculate it. Toyota sold more car, but in terms of $$ spent, Model 3 is the most popular sedan in US.

Interesting spin. The market actually thinks it's a great outcome that Musk is removed as COB, and Musk spins it into some kind of personal endorsement.

BTW, soar = return to pre-crash levels.

Was this tweet directed at the SEC? Or is that the assumption?

Crazy to see how this guy has changed over the last year. From the whole "pedo guy" scandal to the insane earnings call and now this barely-concealed stock price manipulation stuff. He must think he's Tony Stark.

Except Tony Stark actually shipped products on time.

It's only in comics where massive feature creep has only positive effects.

What an asshole, and what a stupid thing to do. He has a responsibility to the company and not just his immense ego, and that responsibility is long term. Taunting the SEC while still under DOJ investigation and facing a number of lawsuits is reckless, obnoxious, counterproductive, and borderline sociopathic.

Note the bit about agreeing to nominate two independent directors to replace himself:

>Musk's settlement with the SEC requires him to give up his position as chairman of Tesla's board for three years.

>Tesla will also be required to appoint two additional board members who are independent of Elon Musk

Prediction: Next crisis comes when, after maximum stalling, he nominates weak shills. Ball back to the SEC.

well, after a tweet that costed that much money, i would probably never tweet again if I were him. however, it was a naughty by nature youtube link, so I guess that is rather harmless

The fine was roughly 0.1% of his net worth. Seems negligible, from a relative perspective.

He probably sees his net worth fluctuate more than that every day purely due to investments.

Yeah, being booted off the board, required to install two independent board members, and facing a criminal investigation are probably the bigger deals than the cash.

I think that Musk's "taunt" is exaggerated. It can easily be read as a way of reinforcing his personal "brand" contra his apparent genuflection to the SEC. (And if Musk's reputation is so important to Tesla as some believe, it makes sense.)

"Musk and Tesla must each pay $20 million in fines, which will be distributed to traders who were harmed by the tweets."

At face-value this sounds like "distribute the proceeds back to the hedge funds that lost money".

Most other outlets have described the tweet as cryptic or enigmatic....

My guess is he is somehow taunting the shorts. He has posted songs for them in the past... namely that song "who wears short shorts?"

Perhaps he is saying... the SEC is cheating on the shorts with him. Cuz... it's widely suspected the SEC was influenced by short sellers.

https://medium.com/@andrewt3000/suspicious-timing-in-sec-law...

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