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Comment by rbanffy | Hacker News Reader

It looks like the 10nm process problems caught Intel very unprepared, which suggests bad news were not traveling as quickly and as far as they should. This is an issue with companies above a certain size.

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Bruce Webster calls this the Thermocline of Truth. Which I think is a great metaphor.

http://brucefwebster.com/2008/04/15/the-wetware-crisis-the-t...

The Pentium 4 problems over 15 years ago caught Intel very unprepared. The problems since have been increasingly less forgivable. 14nm wasn't exactly a smooth rollout either. The fact that Intel management decided that the physics problems they were encountering with increasing regularity could be countered by bold management proclamations suggests a hearing problem on their part rather than an issue of those further down the org chart communicating the issues far and wide.

It appears that the 10 nm problems caught Intel by surprise because they fell into the unknown category. I’m confused why you think that some communication issue follows from that. Intel has a multi year roadmap and long lead times so I don’t think they were unprepared for this. This is the exact response you would expect to a delay on the latest technology node.

It appears that the 10 nm problems caught Intel by surprise because they fell into the unknown category.

Are you sure the problem couldn't be interpreted as, "We've set the die sizes too large?" Because that's how AMD is approaching it, and they're winning.

Nobody wants to be frank with the people above them.

Alternatively, people get to the top in part because they where lucky, which makes them more optimistic than they should be.

That doesn't work out very well.

There’s another mechanism which is too much optimism. Everyone is susceptible, not just the folks at the top.

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